NEVADA 2016 VS 2012 GRAND TOTALS

[tevolit]

There are very few early votes unreported. The numbers that follow are going to be very, very close to final numbers.
These numbers come with the disclaimer that they were compiled by me and may contain errors.(probably not!)
..............................................

GRAND TOTAL 2016
767,414 Total Voted Early and Mail
52.4 % of Active Voters

323,466 Dem 42.15 %
277,417 Rep 36.15 %
166,532 Other 21.7 %
..............................................

Grand Total Early 2012
705,051 Total Voted Early and Mail
56% of Active Voters

308,828 Dem 43.8 %
260,601 Rep 36.96 %
135,622 Other 19.24 %
...............................................

STILL TO COME 2012 Election DAY OF
311,613 Total on Election Day
24.8 % of Active Voters

121,358 38.95 % Dem
109,664 35.19 % Rep
80,591 25.86 % Other
....................................................

My analysis is as follows.
We won 2012 by about 6.7 %

We are doing about 1% worse in the Dem Vs Rep Category.
If "Other" breaks the same as in 2012, we could lose a little ground there.
And then, we might take a little more damage on election day since 3.6 % less of Active voters have taken part so far. This slice will probably be a little closer to the 2012 election day percentage of Dems +3.8(Dem vs Rep) rather than the early voting advantage of about 6%(Dem vs Rep) that we achieved during this years early voting.

So, even if we do about 2% worse than 2012 we still win by 4.7%

Since we have a reason to believe that the Women's Vote and the Hispanic Vote is going to be stronger than ever before, I am guessing that we may actually do better than 2012.

+ 7 % sounds good to me!

[Lindalouuu]

1. But the polls and news are telling us Clinton is trailing in nev?

Help !

[book_worm]

5. What polls are you talking about? I've seen polls where she is leading.

[Fla Dem]

10. Could be this is what they saw.

New CNN / ORC polls suggest new strength for Trump in Nevada, Clinton rise in Florida
By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 5:45 PM ET, Thu November 3, 2016

Washington (CNN)Both the Clinton and Trump campaigns have hit the ground hard in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and new CNN/ORC polls across the four states paint a picture of a tight race to the finish in critical battlegrounds.

Clinton holds a 4-point edge among likely voters in the historically blue-tilting Pennsylvania, and Trump tops Clinton by 5 with voters in red-leaning Arizona. Though both states tilt in the same direction as their 2012 results, the leaders' margins are tighter than their predecessors' final leads were in each state.
Florida appears to be as tight a contest as ever, with Clinton at 49% among likely voters and Trump at 47%. That's an apparent shift in Clinton's direction since the last CNN/ORC poll there in September before the presidential debates began, but still a within-margin-of-error race.

In Nevada, the poll suggests the race has also shifted, with Trump now ahead there 49% to 43%, with 5% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson, compared with a two-point Clinton edge in mid-October.

More>>>

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/

CNN/ORC Poll Documents
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

[Lindalouuu]

15. Yes. That's the one I read.

But then other sources are saying that Latino early turnout is huge...which is good for us...I think. It is confusing.

[Demsrule86]

9. Maybe on right wing sites.

[Sugarcoated]

12. Then go get some help

you need it

[RBInMaine]

2. Who is winning the Indy vote which is up? Are many newly-registered Hispanics Indy? How about

young people who are Indy? In other places I am hearing many of the Indies are Hispanic Hillary supporters.

[tevolit]

3. Hispanic Breakdown

My calculations, based on about 20% of the active voters being Hispanic, are as follows.

Percentage of each group that is Hispanic.

30 % of Dems
9 % of Reps
18 % of NP(Other)

I do not know which ones are newly registered.


This Exit Poll of the 2012 Race,
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/
said, Independents voted as follows(This may be how they "Thought" of themselves and not how they were registered.)

43 % Dems
50 % Reps

[Historic NY]

4. I'll believe Ralston

[book_worm]

6. Yes, I'll go to Ralston for my Nevada analysis.