Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Republican Mitt Romney has edged ahead of President Obama in the new Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, with the challenger winning 50 percent of likely voters for the first time in the campaign.

As Romney hits 50, the president stands at 47 percent, his lowest tally in Post-ABC polling since before the national party conventions. A three-point edge gives Romney his first apparent advantage in the national popular vote, but it is not one that is statistically significant with a conventional level of 95 percent confidence.

Results from the tracking poll were first released Monday evening, and had Obama at 49 percent, and Romney at 48. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the results were flipped, with Romney at 49 and the president at 48. All of the results are among likely voters.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/10/25/post-abc-tracking-poll-romney-50-percent-obama-47/

[Fast Walker 52]

1. this is indeed why Republicans were so shocked when Obama won

even though an analysis of the electoral college showed his advantage quite clearly

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. In their defense they nailed the final result.

OTOH, I don't believe the polls shifted seven points in ten days.

[Cicada]

3. Their huge shifts seem due to changes in who they see as likely to vote

Today they said their huge shift from HRC with a 12 point lead to Trump with a one point lead is NoT due to voting preferences. Nobody has changed their mind. The change comes from who ABC Post expect to vote.

That magnitude change in who is REALLY likely to vote seems implausible to me.

[patsimp]

4. thanks for posting this.