2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDespite all this uproar over Comey's letter
Sam Wang still has HRC win at either 99%(bayesian) or 97% (random drift)
Interesting analysis at his website.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)All Clinton needs are a couple of battleground states. I really think, at this point, it's just a question of how big her margin of victory will be. And I do think the margin of victory matters to an extent, so I'm hoping for at least 323 electoral votes.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)So long as it's a clear victory.
I do care about the senate & house races though, and I understand that the amount of victory can affect those races. So in that sense I hope she wins big.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)the margin of victory impacts the narrative. A close contest results in a narrative such as, "We (the GOP) put up the worst candidate in modern history and he still almost won."
I care about sending a strong message to the racists, the xenophobes, the misogynists.
And I care about the House and Senate races.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)races too!
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)Benchmark has her at 91%
Cha
(297,323 posts)I know what he looks like..
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Thanks triron
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)The senate is so razor thin, and her margin of win could be effected ...