***New NBC/Wall st./Marist poll in Florida has HRC up 54-37 in early vote***

[triron]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

[SaschaHM]

1. But doom, gloom, everyone panic right?

[writes3000]

4. It's terrible. Just terrible. I don't know what the hell Dems are doing!

(Sarcasm)

[vadermike]

2. If that holds

Is it enough to win ? I read the other post that we are already fucked in FL. This election is crazy

[Doctor Jack]

3. But some of our worrywart members are saying that flordia is a nightmare for the dems

They are saying that what they are seeing on the ground shows that the republicans are crushing the dems in early voting in Florida. And lets not forget the all important winner of the "lawn sign race". Who to believe

[getagrip_already]

7. yeah, thetrolls seem to be out in force....

Republicans lead in 2012 by several points among early voters. Now, Clinton is ahead.

How is that bad?

The pearl clutches are worried about turnout, not early voting, but they are worried based on misread tea leaves.

[Arkana]

9. Early leads, studies have shown, have the opposite effect.

People want to back winners, and if Trump is shown to be losing people won't show up for him.

[bigdarryl]

40. Where did you here that BULLSHIT!!!!!!

[Arkana]

8. Literally no piece of evidence supports that theory.

Early voting figures have been excellent for Democrats in Florida and North Carolina, two states without which Trump has no path to 270.

All she has to do is deny him one of OH, FL, NC, or NH/NV, and he's already pissed away PA.

[demosincebirth]

38. Many trolls trolling on DU.

[Jason1961]

5. Great news

We've been working our tails to the bone down here.

The "Sky" is NEVER falling people

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. This is among 36 percent of voters

Trump is ahead 51-42 in rest 64 percent of voters that extrapolates to 15.98 percent, hence Clinton is up by 17 - 15.98 = 1 percent.

[Foggyhill]

36. Your assuming there is no early voting left

That Latino turnout in the general would be at previous level and Cuban turnout at previous level in GOP favor

[vdogg]

10. These are terrible Florida numbers!

We're doooomed111!1!1!

[workinclasszero]

11. Comey's last minute lifeline to the GOP

might just be having the opposite effect!

[duffyduff]

13. Hey, but I heard from a thread I just trashed that Trump was "winning" Florida.

The Trumpistas are working overtime, even here.

[mcar]

17. Thank you!

[triron]

18. I have been bothered about something

that perhaps some DUers might spread some light on. The early vote result reported in this poll does not appear consistent with what is reported on the site of Michael McDonald: https://twitter.com/ElectProject

Perhaps many republicans and independents have early voted for HRC??

[LisaL]

19. I guess republicans that vote for Hillary want to get out early.

The ones who want to vote for Trump wait until election day. I don't know how to explain it otherwise.

[Hortensis]

20. RECENT averaging was +3 HRC, but Trump has

pulled up for what appears to be roughly tied over the past few days. Hopefully this poll is showing post-Comey results.

[Foggyhill]

37. Not if you actually know anything about polling

If it's close and you poll a low enough number number with a skewed sample you get a huge amount of noise and a statistical tie

Also, selective attention to bad polls does that

[Hortensis]

39. :) I know enough to not pay attention to these

ups and downs, but I confess I was attracted by what I hope indicates a return.

[triron]

21. knr

[LAS14]

22. K & R (be sure to scroll down)

[geek tragedy]

23. Highly doubtful that's accurate since more Republicans

than Democrats have voted early thus far.

Unless one believes that every single non-Republican vote went to Clinton.

[Garrett78]

24. It's entirely possible some Florida Republicans are voting for Clinton.

Latino turnout in Florida is up from where it was at this point in 2008, and Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout (a deficit of 6000) is much stronger than it was at this point in 2008 (when 73,000 more Republicans than Democrats had already voted). According to the article from the OP.

[geek tragedy]

25. And some Democrats are voting for Trump there.

Especially the Bubba vote in the north of the state.

You don't see anyone one the D side who's looking at the early vote #s there seeing much that they like.

[Garrett78]

27. Given the trend, let's see what the early vote totals look like a few days from now.

Because Dems have cut the deficit from 18,000 to 6,000 in a short amount of time.

[geek tragedy]

28. They need to build a lead of 200k

They really need to step it up for that to happen

[Garrett78]

30. Extrapolating based on the results of a previous election is problematic.

We don't really know what level of turnout advantage Democrats need to have in early voting in order to win Florida. Maybe it's 200,000. Maybe it isn't. You're drawing conclusions when none are to be drawn.

[geek tragedy]

32. It's the same every election in Florida.

Republicans win absentee and Election Day, Democrats win EIP.

The question is always whether the Dems win EIP by enough to offset Rep absentee and Election Day advantage.

They gained virtually no ground in EIP voting over the weekend. That's terrible news.

[triron]

29. Also Upshot model

has unaffiliated breaking for HRC in NC. Perhaps same thing is happening in Florida early vote?
Perhaps more republicans than democrats are also voting for Johnson.

[Garrett78]

31. Yeah, we simply don't know what exactly to make of the early voting numbers at this point.

Those who say differently are kidding themselves.

[geek tragedy]

33. Upshot has Clinton losing FL almost as bad as Kerry did nt

[triron]

34. My thoughts exactly

and also more repubs may be opting for voting for HRC or 3rd party than dems for opposing candidates.

[Garrett78]

35. They truly are your thoughts exactly.