Good summary of Supreme Court case on HCR

[Hawaii Hiker]

www.electoral-vote.com

"Another issue that everyone is aware of is how the decision, probably to be handed down in June, will affect the 2012 elections. Ironically, this is where the loser will probably win. If the Court strikes down the mandate or the whole law, Democrats will be incensed at judicial activism and redouble their efforts to make sure Obama is reelected so he gets to fill any Supreme Court vacancies that come up in the next four years. Considering Justice Ginsburg's age and health, her possible retirement (or death) in the next 4 years has to be taken into account. Furthermore, Republicans will relax, since they will no longer have to elect Romney to sign a law repealing the ACA: it will be already gone. Thus a clear decision to kill the law will help the Democrats.

The reverse is also true. If the Court says Congress was within its authority to pass the law, the only way for the Republicans to get rid of it is to take control of the White House, the House, and 60 seats in the senate. The Republican base will move heaven and earth to achieve these goals".

[zipplewrath]

1. I'm dubious

HCR is a fund raising issue for the GOP. They won't do much to reverse it. The won't re-open the donut hole, and they won't increase the cost of medicaid. They would shut down alot of the community health care centers. Probably get rid of the mandate, and make some adjustments to price controls to satisfy the insurance companies. But I'd bet they keep the pre-existing and the child coverage. I wonder if they'd even get rid of the 15% requirement, at least explicitly.

[Cosmocat]

2. All due respect that is not the tea leaves I am reading

I think if it get struck down, it is a BIG win for the Rs.

They are REAL down on their mojo now, and this would be the one clear win they would have gotten in a long time, and they WILL trumpet it loud and clear and the "liberal" media WILL beat up BO left and right. They would use it as an example of how BO is a wanton liberal extremist and as PROOF of his many UNCONSTITUTIONAL acts.

They are not running to repeal HCR, that is a bizarre cart before horse concept.

They trumped up all the hatred over HCR for political means. It is a means to the end. They aren't going to call it quits just because the SC strikes down HCR. They are power crazed lunatics, getting power is the goal, not striking down HCR.

The SC upholds the law, the Rs will grouse a bit, but everyone knows it is a CONSERVATIVE court. Hard to sell the liberal activist SC when it is not that. And, the whole HCR thing is so complex, people only understand it on the margins. People THINK they hate it because the Rs, with the "liberal media" have been acting like it is the Patriot Act. If the SC upholds it, a CONSERVATIVE SC court, the mushy middle will sort of just assume it is not the grave attack on democracy these lunatics scream about it.

IMO, this is wrong on both accounts and the reverse will be the case.