For those with a deeper understanding with 538

[SDANation]

statistics, why would 538 have Hillary continue fall in polls only when all polls coming out have continued to show strong polling for Hillary? Just confused and looking for clarification?

[Wounded Bear]

1. Are you referring to polls?

Or are you thinking of the "probability of winning" charts?

They are different, and PoW charts have additional data points that are not polls, like economic conditions and news reporting.

[SDANation]

2. Yeah probability of winning?

[Wounded Bear]

3. It's like odds at the track...

think of it as a line on a sporting event. 538 itself is not a poll, but a site that aggregates and averages polls and other data.

[Grey Lemercier]

4. the very latest polls over the last 2,3,4 days have showed a small but overall trend toward Trump

Especially in some key swing states.

Thats is NOT counting the bullshit Remington Research fraud polls, btw.

Nothing to get stressed about, except for this fucking new Comeygate email shit eill proably tighten it up a wee bit more in the POTUS race.

The main problem will be down ballot, we may not retake the Senate (that was shaky before this new fake scandal shit), as these new emails will be hammered for the next 10 days and used to flog the racist sexist piglet rw bible bangers to the polls.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

6. ..and that assumes that all factors remain equal

Something might drop into the news cycle on Trump in the next week. You never know.

[Grey Lemercier]

7. lets hope so!!!!!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

5. A few things

1) The population of LV (likely voters -- i.e. those saying they have a strong intention to vote) can shift as the election approaches.
2) It's not uncommon for there to be deviation among poll results. At this time in 2012, there were respected pollsters that had Romney up 1. That's why either the 538 modeling or the RCP averages are a better guide.
3) In the final stretch, the news media has the most to gain by presenting the polls showing a narrowing (and hence, more exciting) race.
4) Notwithstanding point 3, some narrowing is always normal In this case, you have two factors at work: One is "Never Trump" Republicans deciding that they will hold their nose and check the Trump box. The second is that it looks like Gary Johnson's poll numbers have slipped about a point, and it looks like that point has gone to Trump.

[SDANation]

8. Cool thanks all!

Gotcha! I think the cake is baked and trump will lose but seriously FUCK COMEY. How could he be so "extremely reckless" to insert himself 10 days out from the GE. What an asshole partisan with such an ambiguous message. He knew exactly what he was doing.