Does anyone remember what the polls were like in 1992

[gabeana]

2 weeks before the election?

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Clinton led but his percentage was in the low 40s

Due to Perot pulling roughly 15%. I remember it well because I wanted to start betting politics but I wasn't confident enough yet. I didn't understand polling margins and how they aligned with win probability.

There were far fewer state polls at that point. CNN would release the national tracking poll every afternoon. That was the focus. Clinton always led but it varied between let's say 3 and 10 points.

Republican surrogates kept focusing on Clinton's low upside, asserting that leads in the low 40s were not as meaningful as 50% or nearby. That is true in normal terrain, but Perot's popularity was very unusual for a third party candidate, and he had been in the debates, so it was obvious that his support level was real and not going to drop appreciably below the mid teens, if it dropped at all.

[irisblue]

3. I voted after work that day, my first vote FOR a Clinton