2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHoly crap: Christmas came early this year with yesterday's and today's polling
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/AP national: Clinton +13 and topping 50%
Rasmussen national: Clinton +1
ABC national: Clinton +8 and topping 50%
IBD national: Clinton +2
USA Today national: Clinton +10
Reuters national: Clinton +6
Fox News national: Clinton +5 and at 49%
LA Times national: Tie (this is the best Trump does in any of them)
PPIC CA: Clinton +26 (running 4 points ahead of Harris)
Mitchell MI: Clinton +6
WBZ NH: Clinton +5
Yougov TX: Trump +3
What I love about these numbers:
1. Trump's support has hit a ceiling, while Clinton's keeps rising. We now have had a few polls where she commands an absolute majority of the respondents.
2. This also gets to why it's important even if you live in a "safe" state to vote for Clinton -- there is a huge difference in terms of media spin between a President who wins a popular majority and a President who wins a popular plurality.
3. Jesus Christ on a Pogo Stick Texas is within 3 points??!?!! I had been dismissing the talk of flipping Texas as fantasies cooked up by Austinites, but with two weeks left that's not an impossible thing to shoot for (though pushing harder in AZ and NV probably makes more sense, as well as quietly helping McMullin in UT). TX is 38 EVs, sure, but CO+NV+UT+NM+AZ is 37 that could either go our way or at least be denied to Trump (in UT's case), and there's more room for error there because of the multiple jurisdictions.
4. The numbers in PA and MI really make me dismissive of the talk of Trump's "strength" in the rust belt -- he's getting walloped there. I'd much rather see a piece talking about why he's only winning a diagonal line from Alabama to Idaho.
blm
(113,063 posts).
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)K & R
CountAllVotes
(20,875 posts)and yes, I did vote for HRC.
Done.
itsrobert
(14,157 posts)Trump is back according to them.
Polly Hennessey
(6,798 posts)FarmGirl1961, where are you?
reasonabletexan
(40 posts)Yougov is not highly regarded. Early this morning, the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune released their latest poll showing a 3 point gap also - this is a poll with a much higher level of reliability.
So, although this may not be the year, it is one in which the democrats in Texas can finally get fired up.
Maven
(10,533 posts)Who cares about the republic? We need RATINGS!!!
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)Great news! If your candidate is getting more than half of the total votes available.... where there it is
treestar
(82,383 posts)that it is bad because people will not bother to vote seem to think that. Do they have any proof?
Because a Democrat in Texas might be inspired to vote by the possibility that it is actually close and could be won, whereas they would have just assumed they were going to lose and then maybe not bothered to vote.