Cook: House Alert: Democrats Poised to Pick Up 10 to 20 Seats

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report:

Less than two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are on track to pick up between 10 and 20 House seats, a slight uptick in their fortunes, but still well short of the 30 seats they need for the majority. Low enthusiasm for the top of the GOP ticket remains a concern for down-ballot Republicans, but Trump isn't as much of a drag outside of well-educated suburbs, which could limit Democrats' gains. View our full House ratings here.

Ratings Changes

FL-18: OPEN (Murphy) (D) - Treasure Coast: Port St. Lucie, Jupiter
Lean Republican. Democratic Senate nominee Patrick Murphy's open seat has become Republicans' likeliest pickup in the country (other than Florida's 2nd CD, which was radically redistricted). Republicans love the contrast between their candidate, disabled veteran Brian Mast, and Democrat Randy Perkins, the no-nonsense CEO of Ashbritt, a major disaster cleanup firm who has loaned his campaign almost $4 million.

MI-08: Rep. Mike Bishop (R) - Central: Lansing, Detroit exurbs
Lean Republican. This race looked beyond over when former "Little House on the Prairie" child actor Melissa Gilbert withdrew in May. But Democrats' last-minute replacement nominee, Suzanna Shkreli, a young Macomb County prosecutor in the child protection unit, is making a late run at Bishop, a GOP freshman who is still relatively undefined after winning a sleepy 2014 race with 55 percent.

NJ-03: Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) - South Central: Burlington, Toms River
Likely Republican. How much of a drag could Donald Trump and Chris Christie be on GOP candidates in New Jersey's suburbs? So much so that MacArthur, a multimillionaire insurance CEO, is taking out an insurance policy of his own by airing a negative ad against Democrat Fred LaVergne, a former minor party candidate who has been unemployed the last six years and hasn't even raised $1,000 for the race.

[beachbum bob]

1. a wave election can easily bring 20 or MORE seats to democrats.....and the more the MSM

pumps the idea of a "close" election, the more motivation democratic voters have to vote. Trump has alienated the middle and Independents with no hope of recovering them....so unthinkable "safe" conservative seats could fall as well. The senate is a lock with the only debate on how many democrats win...6...7....8...9....

[vi5]

2. What we need to focus on too is state houses....

...and if we can take more states we need to redistrict and counter-gerrymander so that we have an outside chance of controlling the house in the future.

As this election has shown, no matter how civil our candidate is and how reprehensible their candidate is, the media will still pull the "Well both sides are bad!" bullshit.

O.K. so if they are going to do that anyway, then let's at least get some stuff done when we have the power, and do what we want to anyway without worrying about the optics of it.

[BlueStreak]

3. A gain of 15 might be enough to force Ryan to work with Democrats if he wants to accomplish anything