Trump still leading Hillary by 3 in Texas

[RandySF]

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a three-percentage-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton on the eve of early voting in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, had the support of 45 percent of likely Texas voters, compared with 42 percent for Clinton and Tim Kaine; 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and William Weld; and 2 percent for the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka. The remaining 5 percent said they would vote for someone else for president and vice president.

“This is the trend that we’ve been seeing in polling for the last two weeks,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the UT/TT Poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

In spite of the closeness of the race and the margin of error, the number of polls showing similar distance between the candidates, with Trump in front, “is probably a telling us where this race really stands,” Henson said. Close, with a Trump lead, in other words.


https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10/27/uttt-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton/

[bluestateguy]

1. which is a massive underperformance

McCain took Texas by 12% in 2008.

Bob Dole took Texas by 5% in 1996.

[Charles Bukowski]

2. This isn't an outlier result either.

Makes it difficult to believe that HRC is only up 3% nationwide. Yet that was the "Breaking News" on CNN all day.

[Gothmog]

3. Yeah

[LisaL]

4. Likely voters?

What about unlikely voters? So far turnout is TX is higher than in 2012.

"The trend, broadly, is that more Democratic counties have seen bigger increases in how many votes have been cast by this point in the election. On average, counties that backed President Obama in 2012 have seen an increase of 65 percent in early voting so far. Counties that backed Mitt Romney have seen an increase of 44 percent."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/27/how-the-early-vote-is-shaping-up-in-texas-nevada-and-florida/

[JCMach1]

5. Discount 3rd Party here because Texas has straight party voting

Head to head would be a better determiner.