Succinct Update On the State of the Race From Nate Silver

[Doctor Jack]

Clinton margins:
VA +8.8
—
NH +8.1
MN +8.0
MI +7.6
WI +7.2
CO +7.1
PA +7.1
—
NV +3.4
FL +3.2
NC +2.7
—
AZ +0.9
OH +0.7
IA +0.4
—
GA -3.0


Now for Dr. Jack's input.

Here is the map of states where Clinton is over 7 points



And here is the map of states where Clinton is over 3 points

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Yup

This sums it up and doesn't even consider the ground game advantage she has. Add 2-3 points to all the swing states for her.

[Doctor Jack]

2. I wouldn't doubt it

They keep talking about Ohio being a slim Clinton lead of about half a point. But I bet she wins by 3 or so points there. The best analogy I heard is that the ground game is going to be like the debate prep. Some people are going to speculate that the ground game isn't all that important and that Trump's campaign might prove that it isn't that important and then their performance on election day is going to be a total shitshow. Their people aren't going to know where to go to vote, they won't have rides, they won't know its actually election day, or they will get to the polls and realized they had to register before they can vote.

Nate Silver says he is being conservative and that Trumps 14% chance of winning is likely too high but there is a chance that the polls could be wrong, so Trump might squeeze out a narrow victory. I think the opposite is true. I think that the polls are underestimating Clinton and as you said, she will outperform her numbers by a few points.

[woolldog]

3. So what you're saying is

that its neck and neck? A horse race, so to speak.

[AwakeAtLast]

13. The MSM is trying to say that. n/t

[Dawson Leery]

4. Double digit wins are likely in the first set.

[Doctor Jack]

5. Exactly

I highly doubt she will win Michigan by only 8 points, for instance.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Obama won Michigan by 10%+ both times.

[manicraven]

6. Those maps help but I won't relax until we hear Hillary Clinton is our newly elected President!

Looking at the map of states where Clinton is over 7 points, I can't imagine any of those ending up a red state, and with just that map, she's already over the 270 requirement.

[ILFightinDem]

9. The way we'll know is if she hits 192 or greater before West Coast polls close

CA / OR / WA / HI account for 78 votes. Even Putin's hackers couldn't swing those four. So if she's >= 192 by the time the West closes... you'll know - even if they don't announce it until the polls close out there.

Like the previous posters said - expect +2% for the winner of the ground game. I've heard / seen no indication whatsoever that Cheeto has a good ground game even in the red states, much less ours. The opposite is true for Hillary - she has a good presence everywhere.

Thankfully, our side realizes the value of metrics and data, while the Orange Menace thinks that his charisma alone will win him the election.

How I hope she can get close to or surpass 400 EV. That equals undeniable mandate, Senate for sure, and if not the House, enough of a dent there to probably cost Ryan his speakership - unless he cuts a deal with us (which I'd doubt he'd do). More likely that Nancy could swing the small handful of GOP seats she'd need (which I doubt would happen as well, but I think that's more feasible than Ryan making a deal with the Dem caucus).

[calimary]

12. Welcome to DU, ILFightinDem!

That's a good analysis, and a realistic one. The West will provide a wonderful sweeping finisher!

Eight pm out here. That's when they'll cue the John Williams fanfare on MSNBC and call it. I was working in 1980 when Carter conceded back east, well before we were finished voting out here. Sheesh - it was still daylight here in L.A.!!! Wasn't even dark yet! I was finished for the day - or so I thought. And we'd kinda kicked back and relaxed to watch the returns (dreading the worst - that Reagan would win, which he did). And my beeper went off. I was called back to work to cover the growing outrage out here, by voters who felt they'd been cheated by the networks' early call. That was a horrendously frustrating night.

[semby2]

8. Cool

Thanks for the summary.

[calimary]

11. Welcome to DU, semby2!

Those maps are most interesting. The bigger her numbers, the better.

But ILFightinDem makes a good point. They won't call the election til after the West Coast voting closes, and if she's in the 190s by then, she cleans up with the rest of it. CA, OR, and WA are hers for sure. Hawaii is the "cherry on top". Alaska doesn't have enough electoral votes to make any difference.

[Lucinda]

10. KNR Thank you!