***New Monmouth NH poll HRC +4***

[triron]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_102616/

Was +9 in September.

[Joe941]

1. This is an outlier - no worries.

Look at other polls.

[awake]

2. Or stop looking at polls and get to work for Hillary

[Agschmid]

4. +1

[Peaches999]

9. +2

[Thrill]

7. Can't keep saying that. Its baffling he's gaining traction

in these state polls.

[Joe941]

8. nah... look at the other polls. Clinton is gaining actually.

[book_worm]

3. Oh Noes!

[Sunlei]

5. ignore the polls and vote, please.

[Lefthacker]

6. Obama carroed

NH by a little more than 5.
No worries.

[VMA131Marine]

10. Statistics are your friend ...

Think of it this way: there is about a 20% chance of a single poll result falling within ±1/4 of the MOE of the true state of the race. So if the MOE is ±3% and true support for a candidate is 45%, there is only a 1-in-5 chance that the poll result will be between 44.3% and 45.8%. There is a 68% (or about 2-in-3) chance that the poll result will be between 42% and 48% and a 95% chance that the poll result will be between 39% and 51%.

Another way to look at this is to say that if there are 20 polls of the same race, at least one will likely be off by more than 2 times the MOE in either direction and at least six will be off by more than the MOE in either direction.

[sharp_stick]

11. Marist has her plus 9

was plus 2 in September.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512546574

I try not to get too hung up on single polls.

[Joe941]

12. this.