BS Bloomberg FL poll. 51% Hispanics for Hillary. 2012 FL Exit Poll: 60% Obama

[Renew Deal]

There are many reasons why that Bloomberg poll is bullshit, but the biggest is that they only give 51% of "hispanics" to Hillary. Obama won 60% in 2012.

Romney also won 60% of white voters. Hillary can probably improve on that number.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

[Joe941]

1. That fact alone disqualifies this poll.

[RandySF]

2. It's not BS......

It's the morning shows' focus on it that's BS. If you take the margin of error into account, it's well within the range of othe polls, only this one has him ahead.

[Renew Deal]

5. 51% is nowhere close to the margin of error for this group in this state

[RandySF]

11. It's 45 to 43.

[uponit7771]

6. They are so ignorant, I don't think its too much for them to expect them to know more than me or you

... on this issue of stable polling.

[uponit7771]

3. One thing about this election that should change in the next one is the overtly inconsistent cross

... tabbing.

People shouldn't ignore facts and say "don't look at cross tabs" when the numbers that make up the end poll numbers don't make any sense at all.

The polls with stupid or even unexplained cross tabs should be rated lower in the aggregate sites like RCP and 538

[Drunken Irishman]

4. That doesn't make it a bad poll in and of itself...

It's the noise within the MOE, which is generally much larger for demographic breakdowns.

But it's stupid to take just one poll as proof one candidate is leading over the other. Clinton leads in the average and until that changes, it's safe to say Florida will probably be her's.

[uponit7771]

7. 11 point swings from year to year in this demo looks like more than noise no? I'm think there's a...

... historic baseline to go on.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Not really. There's always going to be more noise in polls than actual results.

Because you're dealing with a much smaller population segment with these demographic crosstabs.

It's possible an 11 point swing is completely causes by three or four voters in this poll.

[BSdetect]

9. Perhaps people are using more mail in rather than going to vote in person this election?

[BSdetect]

12. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512544782

Shows a stable 3% lead for HRC

[GulfCoast66]

13. Little Marco

Got booed off a stage by latinos. That tells the story.

[getagrip_already]

14. the 51% was in miami ONLY....

Not across FL. Largely due to cuban voters, BUT, Romney swept cuban voters. So that number is a big POSITIVE for clinton.

She will more than make up for it in other I4 cities such as orlando and tampa.

[geek tragedy]

15. it's an outlier, and there will always be outliers, that's just how probability works nt