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2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,020 posts) Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:18 PM Oct 2016

0

538 Now cast prediction for Nevada went down???

How is that?? Makes no sense!!!

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 Now cast prediction for Nevada went down??? (Original Post) triron Oct 2016 OP

Huh what? I just loaded the site. HRC has 69.9% chance of taking NV. apnu Oct 2016 #1

i have noticed the same thing. michiganman1019 Oct 2016 #2

I wouldn't worry too much about that Renew Deal Oct 2016 #3

What about NOW CAST do you not understand? brooklynite Oct 2016 #4

Look now vadermike Oct 2016 #5

It was 77.9% yesterday triron Oct 2016 #6

apnu

(8,758 posts)

1. Huh what? I just loaded the site. HRC has 69.9% chance of taking NV.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:21 PM

Oct 2016

And Catherine Cortez Masto has a 60% chance of taking Harry Reid's seat.

michiganman1019

(45 posts)

2. i have noticed the same thing.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:27 PM

Oct 2016

Could it be that
- Polls lose their weight over time?
- Do upward and downward trends carry more weight than we think?
- Does Silver have access to private, internal polls?

Makes me wonder how i can access data on the site and then a few hours later see a significant change.

Renew Deal

(81,873 posts)

3. I wouldn't worry too much about that

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:30 PM

Oct 2016

The number that matters is 3 weeks away.

brooklynite

(94,737 posts)

4. What about NOW CAST do you not understand?

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:31 PM

Oct 2016

NOW CAST will change EVERY TIME a new poll comes out. It is most sensitive to new data.

vadermike

(1,417 posts)

5. Look now

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:58 PM

Oct 2016

Back up Monmouth poll .. GOTV !

triron

(22,020 posts)

6. It was 77.9% yesterday

Reply to vadermike (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 04:04 PM

Oct 2016

2 good polls today (+7 and +6) and it drops under 75%! I admit he doesn't have the new CBS poll for some reason.
Nate is fudging his numbers?

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