2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI think Utah's going to turn blue.
I think all the polls are underestimating the women's vote. There are a lot of Republican women who won't confess to a Hillary vote to their friends or while on the phone with pollsters with their husbands in the room--but in the voting booth, all bets are off.
Since Utah is supposedly in a virtual tie, I'm predicting this effect alone will put Hillary over the top.
Plus, Utah has a lot of Mormons. I grew up with them and have a lot of Mormon friends. I can tell you that LDS men, for the most part, are fucking disgusted by Donald Trump, though they may be afraid to tell anyone this at the risk of not sounding "tough". There's going to be a lot of LDS Hillary supporters that you won't know about until the morning of November 9th.
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. Go ahead, get out that blue Sharpie, and color Utah in. Make sure you stay in the lines, though, because Idaho is a lost cause.
longship
(40,416 posts)Utah is pretty red. But your post put a smile on my face and is well worth supporting.
My best to you.
And a hearty DURec and
brooklynite
(94,572 posts)But they have two other choices; their. Otes coukd go anywhere.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)in Utah (just as Bill Clinton did in 1992) and that the real race for electoral votes will be between Trump and McMullin.
malchickiwick
(1,474 posts)As someone who lived in Utah for nearly 30 years and still has family there (they're all LDS; I am not) I believe the Trump still has the odds-on best chances to take the state based solely on GOP loyalty, which many voters there feel. Even though they find Don despicable, many Mormons will vote for him.
If by chance Donnie-poo doesn't win the state, then I think its 50-50 that McMullin beats Hillary for Utah's six votes. He is a Utah Mormon who is mostly palatable ideologically, while there exists in Utah an illogical loathing of Hillary that goes back to the 1990s. (The Eagle Forum is by far the most powerful group in the Utah Leg.) Remember -- Bill Clinton finished THIRD in UT in '92: Behind Bush and Perot!!!
tgards79
(1,415 posts)...Utah is a virtual tie? New poll: Trump 37, Clinton 20, McMullen 20
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)I believe the last poll that came out had both tied at 26% with the independent candidate at 22%.
sturnz0r
(30 posts)probably, being that there is not much democratic committee resources in UT to muddy the water it may be predictive. (with low population) I buy that women, especially, will vote that way, but empirical data might help
Blue Idaho
(5,049 posts)My dear old mom was Utah born and raised but now lives in Washington State. She was a staunch Romney supporter last round (duh) but this time she's a Clinton supporter. She refuses to vote for any one who deports themselves like Trump.
I'll bet the Mormon community in Utah and southern Idaho are fit to be tied right now.
Missn-Hitch
(1,383 posts)IronLionZion
(45,442 posts)Many prominent Mormons including Mitt Romney, Glenn Beck, and the Deseret News are publicly against that irredeemable pervert.
I hope she wins Utah because it will be psychologically important for us and demoralizing for the GOP. It's very unlikely.