2016 Postmortem

George II

(67,782 posts) Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:16 AM Oct 2016

538 Probability of a Democratic Senate:

Polls Plus: 65.3%
Polls Only: 60.9%
Now Cast: 71.6%

Polls Plus have five seats flipping to the Democrats (Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire), NONE to the republicans.

11 replies

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538 Probability of a Democratic Senate: (Original Post) George II Oct 2016 OP

I think 5 is the minimum....could be several more if democrats beachbumbob Oct 2016 #1

Yup. I noticed that as well. A rising Blue tide raising all boats effect plus Persondem Oct 2016 #2

Thank you for posting, George. brer cat Oct 2016 #3

Nevada is trending our way too. apnu Oct 2016 #4

+1 saltpoint Oct 2016 #6

538 has the most likely outcome at 49 for the Dems BlueStreak Oct 2016 #5

I just looked and 538 has most likely outcome 51D/49R. Ruth Bonner Oct 2016 #7

You are correct BlueStreak Oct 2016 #8

I'd certainly prefer 54D/46R as the most likely outcome. Ruth Bonner Oct 2016 #10

Got a link to that section? BlueProgressive Oct 2016 #9

No direct link, but if you go to 2016 Election on 538, Ruth Bonner Oct 2016 #11

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

1. I think 5 is the minimum....could be several more if democrats

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:21 AM

Oct 2016

Get off their asses and vote, the landslide for Hillary...for taking back the senate and the house could be near record setting....

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

2. Yup. I noticed that as well. A rising Blue tide raising all boats effect plus

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:33 AM

Oct 2016

that nice poll out of NV yesterday.

brer cat

(24,568 posts)

3. Thank you for posting, George.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:44 AM

Oct 2016

This is so important for SC!

apnu

(8,756 posts)

4. Nevada is trending our way too.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:47 AM

Oct 2016

The state is still a toss-up, and we have a long time yet to go, but the trend, right now, favors Democrats.

saltpoint

(50,986 posts)

6. +1

Reply to apnu (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 11:17 AM

Oct 2016

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

5. 538 has the most likely outcome at 49 for the Dems

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 10:13 AM

Oct 2016

Ruth Bonner

(192 posts)

7. I just looked and 538 has most likely outcome 51D/49R.

Reply to BlueStreak (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 12:43 PM

Oct 2016

Maybe it changed since you looked?

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

8. You are correct

Reply to Ruth Bonner (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 01:07 PM

Oct 2016

I looked at it backwards.

51 Dems is 15.1%
50 Dems is 14.6%
52 Dems is 13.9%
49 Dems is 13.0%

Ruth Bonner

(192 posts)

10. I'd certainly prefer 54D/46R as the most likely outcome.

Reply to BlueStreak (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 01:57 PM

Oct 2016

BlueProgressive

(229 posts)

9. Got a link to that section?

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 01:22 PM

Oct 2016

I've been on the site many times and never ran into that page.

Ruth Bonner

(192 posts)

11. No direct link, but if you go to 2016 Election on 538,

Reply to BlueProgressive (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 16, 2016, 02:01 PM

Oct 2016

Near the top right you'll see President, Senate, Analysis.

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