Florida: Older Whites Dominating Early Vote-by-Mail, but Democrats Holding their Own

[RandySF]

Of the more-than 310k vote-by-mail ballots received (not yet tallied) by Florida’s 67 SOEs, ElectionSmith, Inc. has tallied voter file information about 99.7% of those who have already voted in the presidential election. By far–over 82% — of the VBM received have been cast by white voters. Another 7% have been cast by blacks, 6% by Hispanics, and the balance other racial/ethnic groups.

Women have cast roughly 165k of the 310k VBM, accounting for roughly 53.2% of the VBM cast. That’s only slightly more than the 52.8% of women who make up active voters in the state.

Those under the age of 30–many of whom have never licked a postage stamp– have cast only 3.7% of all VBM thus far, well below the 17% of the 12.46m active voters in Florida. On the other hand, registered voters 61 and over have cast 66.6% of the VBM, nearly double the 34.3% of active voters of that age who are registered to vote.

Not surprisingly, Baby-boomers and the Greatest Generation sure do like their vote-by-mail in Florida!

Of the roughly 206k voters 61 and over who have cast VBM thus far, 87% are white. What is surprising, however, is of these 179k older white voters who’ve cast VBM thus far, less than half (47%) are Republicans, which is less than the share of older white Republicans in the September 2016, from which these data are drawn.

Again, it’s way too early to divine too much from these VBM, not only for overall turnout or support for Trump or Clinton, but also for overall VBM figures.

To be sure, these earliest of early VBM voters are likely strongest of strong partisans, unlikely to be moved by any 11th hour revelations in the presidential campaign.

I expect there to be upwards of 3m VBM cast in Florida, so there’s still a long way to go!


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/late-night-numbers-from-florida-older-whites-dominating-early-vote-by-mail-but-democrats-holding-their-own/

[recovering_democrat]

1. I am one of them

registered as independent in FL

[rzemanfl]

2. I'm 69, registered Democrat.

Voted by mail last week. I have never voted for a Republican in my life-never will. In 2004 a guy at the beach asked me what it would take to get me to vote for Dubyah. I said he'd have to hold a gun to my wife's head, holding one to mine wouldn't work.

[karynnj]

3. Older whites may not be the Republican gold mine some think of

1) That generation is more likely to be completely offended by the Trump tape and his comment that he could barge in on the beauty pageant girls. Consider that they might think of their own grand daughters and daughters.

2) That is a generation that though Russia was the evil empire -- and Trump loves former KGB officer Putin.

3) His rudeness is not acceptable.

I may be wrong - as I am going by the people I know - some Republicans.

[senseandsensibility]

5. Also, aren't many of

Jewish? I remember reading that trump is polling historically poorly among Jewish people in FLA.

[shenmue]

4. I voted for Hillary and the Dem ticket!

Ripe old 43 here.

[Cha]

7. You baby! Mahalo, shenmue!

[Cha]

6. I hope they're older whites who give a fig about leaving

a healthy planet to their future generations of offspring!