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Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
Sat Oct 15, 2016, 06:45 PM Oct 2016

At this point it's all about the Senate, I think.

The race for Congress never really began.

The race for the presidency is - I want to say it's pretty much over, barring a catastrophe, but that would be tempting fate. But it's certainly very much Clinton's to lose.

But the senate is still very much balanced on a knife-edge.

Below is a list of the states 538 think are likely to be closest, and the odds they give that that state will be the deciding one for control.

If you live in one of the states near the top of that list, and you want to help ensure that the Democrats are as well-placed as possible for the next four years, a good strategy is probably to let Clinton and your Congresspeople fend for themselves (she'll almost certainly win even without you, they certainly won't be enough even with you), and throw your efforts into supporting your candidate for the Senate.


North Carolina 15.6%
Pennsylvania 12.8%
New Hampshire 11.9%
Nevada 11.4%
Missouri 10.8%
Florida 8.4%
Indiana 7.7%
Wisconsin 3.9%
Kentucky 3.1%
Illinois 2.8%
Arizona 1.7%
Ohio 1.3%
Iowa 1.2%
Colorado 1.0%

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
At this point it's all about the Senate, I think. (Original Post) Donald Ian Rankin Oct 2016 OP
Senate does not look promising oberliner Oct 2016 #1
Too soon to say, I think. Donald Ian Rankin Oct 2016 #3
True oberliner Oct 2016 #4
I agree it is clearly both parties' goal right now underpants Oct 2016 #2
A wave is building. Don't underestimate the effect. Thirty House toss-ups a month ago! Coyotl Oct 2016 #5
Except Trump's unpopularity doesn't seem to be carrying down-ballot. Donald Ian Rankin Oct 2016 #6
dKos House Race Ratings and House Rating Changes Coyotl Oct 2016 #7

underpants

(182,911 posts)
2. I agree it is clearly both parties' goal right now
Sat Oct 15, 2016, 06:53 PM
Oct 2016

The Dem can throw everything at it and use the (knock on wood) pending Hillary victory to carry Senate candidates along. People like voting for winners and we are a nation of followers.

The Republicans clearly are staying, at least publicly, with Trump to avoid complete or down ticket boycotts.

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
5. A wave is building. Don't underestimate the effect. Thirty House toss-ups a month ago!
Sat Oct 15, 2016, 07:35 PM
Oct 2016

I realize this (and you) is outdated, things are vastly improved already, but here is is nonetheless, copy and paste from my older post:



From last week: The House Is Back in Play

Statistical mavens have determined that if Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, the Dems would have a good chance to take the House.




I'd update it, but I don't have time to whack-a-mole every pessimist saying we should give up with a new posting.

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
6. Except Trump's unpopularity doesn't seem to be carrying down-ballot.
Sat Oct 15, 2016, 08:20 PM
Oct 2016

All the statisticians I've seen seem pretty confident the Republicans will hold the house.

I suspect that part of the problem may be that Trump makes other Republicans look good by comparison, and part may be that people thinking "a plague on both your houses" are unlikely to vote for Trump, and hence may vote R down-ballot to balance that out.

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
7. dKos House Race Ratings and House Rating Changes
Sat Oct 15, 2016, 10:12 PM
Oct 2016
The situation is not static, that's what is going on!

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/house

CA-36
CA-52
MD-06

Lean D
CA-07
CA-24
FL-13
NV-04
NY-03

Tossup
AZ-01
CO-06
FL-18
FL-26
IA-01
IL-10
MI-01
MN-02
MN-08
NE-02
NH-01
NJ-05
NV-03
NY-19
NY-22
NY-24
PA-08
TX-23
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