Nate Silver: G.O.P. Campaign Could End Soon — But Not in Louisiana

[racaulk]

Rick Santorum is likely to win the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday. He has had a clear and fairly consistent lead of about 14 percentage points in recent polls there.

Moreover, Lousiana’s demographics are favorable to Mr. Santorum and it is the sort of state where Mr. Santorum has overperformed his polls. And Mr. Santorum has more wiggle room than in past Southern states since Newt Gingrich’s standing seems to be diminished; Mr. Gingrich, instead, is tracking to only about 19 percent in the polls.

While I always urge caution against treating an election outcome as being certain — especially when it comes to voting in the Deep South — there is just not a lot of reason to expect an upset by Mr. Gingrich or by Mitt Romney, who is running second in the polls.

A win in Louisiana, however, would make only a fairly marginal difference in the delegate count. Although the state has 46 delegates, only 20 of those delegates are awarded based on the primary outcome (the rest are awarded at the state convention in June).

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Link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/24/g-o-p-campaign-could-end-soon-but-not-in-louisiana

[Major Hogwash]

1. Yeah, the shrimp cocktails and the rest of the cajun food only goes so far.

But, after this, no more Southern-fried home cooking for Santorum for a month!!

Ooh, that's a longass time.