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mackattack

(344 posts)
Sat Mar 24, 2012, 06:02 PM Mar 2012

Looks like Romney has the nomination in the bag.

I found this cool interactive feature on the NYT politics section:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/romney-probabilities?ref=politics

You and look at each candidate, see how many delegates they need, and look at the probability they will win them. You can even adjust the percentage of delegates you think they will win AND the margin of error.

Try it out for yourself. Even in the worst case scenario, it looks like Mittens has it.

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Looks like Romney has the nomination in the bag. (Original Post) mackattack Mar 2012 OP
Wouldn't the other option be..... left on green only Mar 2012 #1
A Better Way of Saying That Would Be... Yavin4 Mar 2012 #2
Awesome visual there! MannyGoldstein Mar 2012 #3
there has never really been any doubt. bowens43 Mar 2012 #4
Bottom line, if Romney wins less than 46% of the remaining, hes not going to clinch. DCBob Mar 2012 #5
Does not matter to me who gets it... and-justice-for-all Mar 2012 #6
Only if he keeps his mouth shut between now and then. grantcart Mar 2012 #7
He always has--being the best of the D-list will do that. Arkana Mar 2012 #8
Question? Johnny2X2X Mar 2012 #9
Good question mackattack Mar 2012 #10

left on green only

(1,484 posts)
1. Wouldn't the other option be.....
Sat Mar 24, 2012, 06:13 PM
Mar 2012

that no one gets it? Otherwise, other than our need for entertainment, why is the race still going on?

Yavin4

(35,445 posts)
2. A Better Way of Saying That Would Be...
Sat Mar 24, 2012, 07:23 PM
Mar 2012

Romney has strapped the Republican party to the roof of his car and he's heading towards oblivion.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
5. Bottom line, if Romney wins less than 46% of the remaining, hes not going to clinch.
Sun Mar 25, 2012, 07:32 AM
Mar 2012

I think if Santorum and Gingrich both stay in and the Romney gaffe machine continues, then its very likely he wont win the remaining 46%. The big question is will someone drop out.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
8. He always has--being the best of the D-list will do that.
Mon Mar 26, 2012, 11:18 AM
Mar 2012

But it's still fun to watch him get bloodied and beaten on the way there. And he has had to do and say some crazy shit to get it--I guarantee you that Team Obama will not allow the American people to forget.

Johnny2X2X

(19,095 posts)
9. Question?
Mon Mar 26, 2012, 12:17 PM
Mar 2012

I remember in the past that defeated candidates control their delegates. If this is true, then Romney if he doesn't get to 1144 will have to persuade one of the other candidates to pledge him the delegates that they have. If Romney does not get to 1144 then he wins nothing.

Also, couldn't Santorum and Newt strike a deal before the convention where they combine their delegates so one of them could win and the other is promised the VP?

 

mackattack

(344 posts)
10. Good question
Mon Mar 26, 2012, 12:34 PM
Mar 2012

I know they changed a bunch of rules because they were unhappy that 2008 gave them McCain. SOme of the rules are on the wiki page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

I will ask your question in the Politics 2012 forum and post the link to you as a reply.

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