Poll: Clinton Ahead in North Carolina; Virtual Tie in Ohio

[geek tragedy]

WTF is wrong with Ohio? Are the men there really that awful?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-clinton-ahead-north-carolina-virtual-tie-ohio-n665981

In North Carolina, Clinton gets support from 45 percent of likely voters, Trump gets 41 percent, and Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 9 percent. (The Green Party's Jill Stein didn't qualify to make the ballot in the state.)

In a two-way race, Clinton's lead expands to five points, 48 percent to 43 percent.

In Ohio, Trump holds a one-point advantage over Clinton among likely voters, 42 percent to 41 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent, although that margin is inside the poll's margin of error.

Clinton's going to win the WH, but it will be a stain on any state if they vote for Trump.

[Cha]

1. That's hard to believe about Ohio..

Been reading so many reports about all the "early voting out in droves for Hillary".

[geek tragedy]

3. lots of dirtbag losers there apparently nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

5. It's basically Kentucky and West Virginia in the southern part.

The rest of it's more similar to other blue states, with pockets of Republicans in less-populated rural areas.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. I think Ohio will vote for Clinton.

If not...

[Thrill]

4. I just don't buy Johnson getting that kind of support

[Joe941]

6. This poll is an outlier - look at all the others.

[geek tragedy]

7. How many quality polls of OH have there been lately?

Lots of robo polls, internet polls with odd methodologies, and cheap polls with small sample sizes etc.

quality live person polls, calling both landline and cell, have persistently shown Trump ahead there.

Clinton is much more likely to win NC than OH.

[Joe941]

8. Lebran James comments might turn ohio.

[geek tragedy]

9. those comments, and Trump being exposed as a proud sexual abuser, didn't move the needle

in Hillary's favor.

[Joe941]

10. Takes time for the polls to reflect peoples opinions.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. I'm not sure of the methodology in this recent one...

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/10/new_ohio_poll_puts_hillary_cli.html#incart_2box

Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent unsure, in a direct match-up, the poll found. When the two minority party candidates are added to the mix – as they are on state ballots -- Clinton leads by 9 percent, 43 percent to 34 percent.

The Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll began at 11 p.m. Sunday, less than a half hour after the second debate concluded, and ended at 7 p.m. Tuesday. It surveyed 1,152 likely voters across the state, with quotas to make sure that the survey sample matched up with the state's age and gender breakdowns. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

Education...

The breakdowns based on education level are stark. People who did not finish high school favor Clinton by a huge margin, 43 percent to 14 percent for Trump. But people with no more education than a high school diploma favor Trump, 44 percent to 39 percent for Clinton.

When you add in some college, the margin grows for Trump, to 44 percent compared to Clinton's 33 percent.

But people with four-year degrees favor Clinton, 48 percent to 30 percent for Trump. And people with advanced degrees overwhelmingly favor Clinton, 52 percent to Trump's 29 percent.

Hmm... given how Clinton leads by such a wide margin among people WITHOUT a high school diploma, maybe I should stop talking smack about Southern Ohio?

[geek tragedy]

12. What % of the population is less than high school?

My guess is that they tend to skew young.

This is the first time I've heard of the Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute--so not giving it a great deal of weight.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

13. I'm not going to worry too much yet.

Ohio will go almost certainly follow the national average, albeit a little more conservative.

If it's strongly out of line with that pattern this time around, I'll be shocked.

Campaign ads are allowed to be full of lies here now, so that's not good! Ads with factual errors could be pulled in years past.

EDIT: There was about 17% of Ohioans (25+ years of age) without a high school diploma in 2000, according to this site:
http://www.censusscope.org/us/rank_education_withouths_2000.html

[geek tragedy]

14. I think there's been a realignment amongst white voters

plays along education, geography (urban/suburban vs small town/rural) and even a bit of class.

white people living in stagnant/decaying communities with big meth/opioid/heroin issues (N Maine, West Virginia) have swung over into Trump's rightwing ethnonationalism. Same playbook that a certain failed artist used in Weimar Germany.

Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina all moving towards our party, Iowa and Ohio moving towards theirs

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. We'll see. I personally think Clinton's "ground game" will help her win Ohio.

When I voted yesterday, I only saw Clinton supporters and signs outside of the polling site. There weren't any Trump lunatics or their signs anywhere.

[geek tragedy]

16. ground game can make a difference of about 1-2 points

Ground game probably means North Carolina is looking very good for us.