The USC/LA Times National Panel finally has Drumpf and Hill tied

[titaniumsalute]

That's good since the panel has been pretty much the ONE poll Drumpf has been touting. Now he probably cannot do that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[BlueStreak]

1. This LA TImes poll has been so far off from all other polls, how does it get an "A" from 538?

I understand that consistency is something, but being consistently off by 5% doesn't sound like a poll that should be given much credence.

[titaniumsalute]

3. The problem is it is a panel type poll

Same people are polled. Depending on the feelings of people when the panel was created it doesn't change much. (Who really has been changing their minds on who they are going to vote for in the election?)

[BlueStreak]

4. I didn't know that. That explains a lot. Thanks.

We see variations of that. NPR keeps going back to this same set of Ohio voters who claim to be "undecided" But they are obviously very entrenched because while the Ohio numbers have moved about 10% in the past 30 days, the Trump supporters that NPR interviewed haven't given an inch.

This becomes the most worthless, disgusting false equivalence king of reporting. Pick an equal number of people on each side and give them all equal time, ending up with "everything is equal". A complete waste of airtime, and an insult to anybody who tuned in expecting to learn anything relevant.

Considering that the LA poll is a fixed panel, then any movement is extremely significant.

[Renew Deal]

5. Is this specific poll getting the A?

[BlueStreak]

6. AFAIK, 538 rates pollsters, not individual polls

I believe the "A" goes to LA Times. 538 certainly categorizes the results of each poll, and that factors into their algorithm. For example, they treat registered voters different from likely voters, and give weight to larger sample sizes.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Funny Freepr article.

Over the weekend this poll went from like Trump +3.8 to Trump 3.4 and then back to Trump +3.7, they did a huge article about it saying how,"the Tape made Trump did a little, but the debate he gained it all back." A total ignorance of how polls work and what noise is. Now thy it's tied in sure they're ignoring it and going back to their online Breitbart poll that has Trump +30.