People. The GOP is not about to die.

[retrowire]

They might die as we know them sure.

But it's likely undergoing a civil war and thusly a transformation.

I think we, need to play a role in that transformation.

This is a two party system whether we like it or not. And we should probably think about what can be done to ensure the Republican party is not reborn as Trump's party, but rather a party that can actually synergize with us, rather than stagnate the whole god damn thing.

Any thoughts?

[beachbum bob]

1. a trump party will be a 35% of the electorate and never acheive significant power or input

so the GOP is pretty much destroyed

[retrowire]

3. but hate permeates

And it infects. Negativity is more contagious that positivity.

I don't think we'd want the Republican party amplified as it is today for the next many or so years.

[beachbum bob]

6. the republican party won't exist

and the whatever arises more rightwing and hateful will be clobbered

[Yavin4]

34. Hmmm. Ask a German about your statement. n/t

[LeftRant]

63. That's still a dangerous thing. Groups like that in France/Germany suddenly gaining ground.

And they waited a long time for this.

[socialist_n_TN]

2. Even the "good" Grab Our Pussy party.......

is bad for workers and the oppressed. There is NO way to work with the neo-liberal contingent in either party and have it be good for the rest of us. I, personally, even have a problem with the social democrats and their policies, but at least with them, I can say "This policy will help the 99% so I can advocate for it". With the neo-liberals, there's NOTHING there that can be supported.

[apnu]

7. Its not the party, its the people in the party.

Political parties come and go in American politics, but the constant that blows them up, that blows up the nation every so often are conservatives. It is us, the liberal and the progressive, that pick up the pieces and keep moving our great experiment forward.

All through America's history, most of our ills come from things conservatives do. The Civil War? Conservatives. Great Depression? Conservatives. Jim Crow? Conservatives. English sympathy in the 1700s? Conservatives.

Its always conservatives, they hold us back.

I'm enjoying, yet another, conservative implosion. Thankfully they haven't seceded and declared war on the United States, and thankfully they aren't hosing people down with fire hoses in the streets, but they are imploding.

[kurt_cagle]

66. Sort of

I don't have a link to the study, but there was one recently in which each party was ranked on progressive vs conservative values using a normalized scale. The thing that was most intriguing was that the Democratic party almost invariably represented the majority (and hence status quo) opinion through its existence, while the secondary party (the GOP since 1859) has been all over the map. This looked primarily at Congress rather than the presidency, which has usually been fairly centrist.

[apnu]

68. That's because, at its heart, America is a liberal place.

Our nation is founded on liberal principles, we stated our liberalism in the Deceleration of Independence.

Where goes liberalism, goes the heart of America. Once upon a time the conservatives were in the Democratic Party, then the Civil War nearly destroyed them and they shifted to the new dominant political party at the time, the Republicans. It took a long time but that act pushed the liberals out of the party and so America saw a pole shift of liberals and conservatives.

But the constant in this country has always been liberals vs conservatives.

You are right about conservatives being all over the map, they always have been all over the map and what we're seeing now is that again. This is nothing new in the history of conservationism in America. It is painful to watch, however.

[LisaM]

4. I think you're right.

A more moderate GOP could help push the Democratic party to the left, among other things, but people have been predicting its demise for a while and it doesn't happen. Yes, they're in turmoil now, but that's not because there aren't plenty of conservatives out there.

[gopiscrap]

8. anyone who is a republican is a shitstain scum of the earth

this party needs to die. There is no place in this country for a party or it's members that advocates sexism, racism and hate. Go away and don't ever come back!!!

[bluestateguy]

9. I don't think we want a one party Democratic hegemony

would not be healthy for the country, or for the Democrats actually.

[BobbyDrake]

13. I think our primary demonstrated (positively) that the Democratic Party is not a monolith.

Right now, we're the big tent.

[zonkers]

10. Your first 2 sentences are opposing thoughts. "not about to die"/ "die as we know them for sure"

I ,mean, I know what you are implying but really, they have no unifying platform. They cannot claim they are the party of "conservatism," or "christian values" If they die as we know them for sure... they are for all practical purposes dead. They have a "name" And thats about it.

I mean Napster is still around but it's sure not the same Napster. (just a comparison that popped into my head.)

IMO, the GOP is totally dead. Their brand is destroyed . Let them become radicalized. Let them become fringe.

IMO, their self destruction began with Bush #2 and Bush vs. Gore decision. It was the single most demoralizing political event in my lifetime.

[BobbyDrake]

11. You might be forgetting how old their average voter age is.

I know there are older Democrats too, but our fortunes aren't linked to them the same way the GOP is.

Trump may not kill the GOP itself, but he does totally murder their credibility and reputation for a few election cycles.

[NobodyHere]

41. I wish I could agree with you

But I think Trump will be largely forgotten by 2018.

[BobbyDrake]

48. Like how Nader and "lockbox" from 2000 are forgotten?

Like how swiftboating from 2004 is forgotten? Like how no one this year has mentioned "47%," at all?

[vi5]

52. And young Dems now....

....will grow old and become conservative.

Remember how people thought once the WW2 generation died off and the baby boomers took over that things would be great? Look how far we haven't come.

[Lint Head]

12. The Whigs and the Tories would disagree. If they were still alive.

[retrowire]

24. and they created a power vacuum that was replaced by.... nt

[Dem2]

14. You're right

Party's these days don't die, they simply adjust and moved on.

[Eleanors38]

15. Before the GOP "can synergize with us," "us" must undergo a transformation....

The GOP is well-defined, and its leadership has pretty much had is way at defining what Democrats are about. Part of that definition is NOT to work with Democrats anything outside the boundaries of protecting corporate/financier interests. To depend on the fortunes or misfortunes of the Repubs is NOT defining who we are, but to play a game of passive-aggressiveness writ large. You get a solid Democratic voting base of folks who Want to vote for the Party, then you have the power to bargain (or synthesize) with the opposition.

[pnwmom]

16. Congress should immediately pass a law to require the nominee

to submit 10 years of Federal tax returns.

This might be the best moment to pass this in a non-partisan way.

[fun n serious]

35. I wonder if Bernie would sign that?

He was so against releasing taxes....

[former9thward]

57. That would be unconstitutional.

The Constitution sets the requirements for President. Nothing can change that except an amendment to the Constitution.

[qdouble]

60. if people want to vote for someone hiding their taxes, that's on them

[tinrobot]

17. We may see a rise of the Libertarian Party

I could see the Republicans splitting into two parties. The more corporate/business oriented members aligning with the Libertarians, and the Tea Partiers taking over the GOP.

[LonePirate]

18. Cruz is positioning himself as the party leader bridging the Trump and Washington factions.

[progressoid]

45. Yep, he's in the wings waiting for his entrance back on the stage.

[Jade Fox]

20. The GOP is trying to unite three very different groups.....

The moneyed elite, the right wing evangelicals, and the Tea Party/Trump voters. The GOP cannot win Presidential elections with just one of those group's support, and they know it.

They have been trying for awhile to figure out how to do this impossible task, and needless to say, its not working.

I do believe the GOP is down for the count. What will emerge? Who knows.

[whatthehey]

21. Sorry. We have a Duverger's Law system

Anybody thinking the RW will split in any significant and lasting way is nuts.

Consider it. The deplorables are about 30-35% of the nation. Mainstream Republican leaners maybe 20%. There isn't anywhere near as large a far-left bloc. There is one of course, but 5-10% absolute max, leaving 40-50% current Dem leaners.

So if the two blocs on the right don't support each other they are both permanently locked out of power. The Dems can afford to cosy up to the left fringe a bit because there's no center-right opposition that can win any more by painting them as uber-liberal, so they can jettison the Rockefeller Republicans with total impunity.

Meanwhile both the deplorables and the Rs want to engage in imperial military ventures, resent spending on the poor, have problems with treating minorities, gays and non-Christians as full citizens, and want to keep taxes on the wealthy low. All they disagree on is how much to publicly hate and marginalize the other and compromise with Ds.

Any non-dribbling imbecile then does the math and finds they get most of what they want if they go back to the kinder gentler non-frothing RW who only use racial and gender slurs when nobody is listening but fuck all of it if they stay "pure", so any hoped-for split quickly heals regardless of party label or leadership.

[Cosmocat]

23. YEP

this is by far the most likely outcome ...

[sofa king]

30. I dissent!

I disagree on two points:

First, the real deplorables are the right-wing authoritarians, who for all their bluster are only 23% of the population. The others in the Trump basket are comparatively benign one-issue chumps, like Second-Amendment non-thinkers, libertarian-fantasy fools, war-hawks, misogynists and not-Hillarys, and tax-cut-for-the-rich acolytes. When the swastika comes out for real, those chumps are going to wander back home to the Republican Party.

Second, the authoritarians aren't coming back to the old Trojan Horse GOP. Trump has made public racism, jingoism, and proud ignorance acceptable again, and they're never going to accept the Republican baby-food version of those things ever again. They've busted out of the horse for good and they're well on their way to coalescing around a new American Fascist Party.

I'm sure the neo-Fascists will align with the Republicans in the House, but statewide and national offices are well on their way to being lost to the Republican Party for a very long time across a vast swath of the United States. The neo-Fascists may or may not temporarily align with the Republicans in Senate and Presidential races, but every time they do the Republican Party will suffer for it, and sooner rather than later they will break off on their own and directly compete with the GOP for the one-issue-wonder voters.

It's a near-perfect split between the evil and the stupid, now, giving each an unworkable one-quarter of all votes. It won't last long but it might be enough to drag America kicking and screaming back in the direction of the 21st Century, instead of the 19th.

[uponit7771]

37. The second part is what is going to keep them out for 2 cycles, The Baskets have enough people

... to fuck shit up for at least two cycles cause they've won something.

[whatthehey]

40. What's in it for them though?

The percentage split isn't the problem. ANY split that makes the right side of the electorate notably smaller in the sense of unified voting blocs than the left side (or vice versa of course) is committing themselves to impotent irrelevancy.

If it's 13 or 23 or 33% deplorables it doesn't make any difference. It leaves both them and mainstream Rs unable to win enough seats to be much of an opposition to the mid-40% mainstream Ds. They get nothing they want at all that way, and neither do the mainstream Rs. Neither has a shot at the presidency (unified, they have precious little enough now even with a reasonable candidate) and divided neither would win many Congressional seats. We don't have proportional representation so it wouldn't be 25-25-50% of the seats, it would be each district seeing the RW vote split, so only the very deepest gerrymandered red ones would give either of them a chance to beat the D.

That's why the abovementioned law exists in first past the post systems. It eventually coalesces into two parties willing to give up purity to get some of what they want. Even the Trumpenreich get that. He ran as an R for a reason.

[sofa king]

44. Unlimited Power

That's what's in it for them. The RWAs are, by their nature, absolutists, living in an all-or-nothing, black-and-white world. Since Nixon first practiced the Southern Strategy, racism has been an integral but partially concealed part of the Republican Party. Not any more.

I contend that their very uncompromising, all or nothing nature will now propel the authoritarians completely over the cliff, and they will never again be satisfied with candidates who fail to pander directly to their racist dreams. We're talking about people driven by fear, who fervently believe that they are a majority, not a pathetic minority, who now have a dark vision of total success.

No, it's not logical, or realistic. But neither are they. Donald Trump spawns directly from the same cloud-cuckoo-land from which Hitler and the Nazis came, and they will look directly to that example for the path to absolute power.

[whatthehey]

47. How do they get that power?

Unless you fear armed insurrection (which may happen in some locally horrific but inept way, but is infinitesimally likely to achieve anything but dead deplorables in the end) there is no way for a voting bloc much smaller than the two major parties to access any power whatsoever.

Would Trump want and try to be a Hitler in achieving power? I guess, but we don't have the same system. We don't have party coalitions or a Hindenburg to issue emergency decrees or appoint Chancellors. The only route to executive power we have is the Electoral College and a first past the post EV count. Small but loud extreme fringes can't win that way.

[sofa king]

50. Hitler was just a Napoleon...

... who was just a Cromwell... who was just a Nero... who was just one of the Thirty Tyrants.

What they all have in common is that they were propelled to tyranny by right-wing authoritarians who were willing to accept violence and oppression as a means to realize absolute power for their chosen dictator. They are never a majority. They always amplify their influence through hostility to social out-groups and extra-political means. The details of the political systems they all usurped are almost irrelevant.

Trump is no different from any of them. He's the surf boarder riding the wave of hatred and fear, just like all the others.

Edit: But I do have to clarify that I don't expect the um, essence of the Republican Party to be diluted in any way. Evil never dies.

[socialist_n_TN]

46. I disagree with your numbers about the left supporters.........

IF you're talking about Bernie supporters being "far left" anyway.

Gallup did some research on this and found that about 18% of the self-identified "Independents" were considered "Democratic leaning independents". Now this bloc can reasonably be considered the LEFT of the Democratic Party as it's now constituted. That's logical because why would they consider themselves "Independent" if their views were mainstream Democratic? Ergo probably they're to the left of Democrats. Add in the 10% to 15% of left leaning people who still consider themselves "Democrats" and you have a bloc of around 30% to 35% that would be considered the "far left" by most Republicans AND by most Democrats. This is actually a bigger bloc than either party. You can also look at how people stand on ISSUES to get an idea of the size of this bloc.

Now if you consider "far left" to be revolutionary socialists of various stripes, the 5% to 10% figure is probably accurate. Although, I believe that even that contingent is growing daily in response to this election and the failures of capitalism in general. And there will be an even BIGGER surge in this true "far left" grouping when the next recession craters the world economy again within the next couple of years.

[whatthehey]

49. I would say few Bernie supporters were far left. I wasn't. He certainly isn't himself

He may have been a few decades back, but not in his 2016 campaign stances.

Independent Dems can also be on the right and even moderate Dems so I'd draw little from that. Hell I personally, by no means an independent by either vote or self-identification, have positions that are, separately, both to the right and to the left of Democratic Party norms and I doubt I'm unique (FWIW death penalty and single payer universal health care would be examples.) Only 10-12% of the population thinks Obama is too far right. He's not the most left-leaning elected Democrat by far, so the far "I'll never be a Dem because they are way too right wing" left is definitively much smaller than that. I'd say the real far-left is even smaller than the non-Democratic party segment of that group.

To me what characterizes the far left is the same approach, although not opinions, that characterizes the far right; a stance that our society is at its very core sick and existentially at risk without major systemic change to tear out the rot by root and branch. To the right that rot's racial and religious integration and certain aspects of personal liberty and individualism. To the left that rot's capitalism, militarism and different certain aspects of personal liberty and individualism.

[socialist_n_TN]

61. Once I disagree with that premise that .....

"...independent Dems can also be on the right". The ones on the right would be the 16% of self-declared independents who were characterized by Gallup as "Republican leaning independents".

But it sounds like you were talking about the revolutionary far left. In that case I'd say 5% to 10% is a correct figure for that group at this time. But as I said above, that WILL change and grow as capitalism continues to rape the rest of us without either of the two main parties doing anything about it. It's the dialectic at work. Repression and oppression generates its own opposition. Add in another global crash, even worse than '08, within a couple of years and the shit will REALLY hit the fan.

[Jim Lane]

65. We can reasonably hope for a significant split even if it doesn't last.

It's conceivable to me that, in 2020, some Trump-type diehards would support a third-party candidacy when the GOP refuses to go along with them again. A Nader of the right could have a significant impact on that election.

I do agree with you that a long-lasting impact is unlikely. The best example is Nader himself, who lost most of his support between 2000 and 2004.

[Cosmocat]

22. It breaks 1 of 2 ways

the LEAST likely is a Trump Party tearing the R party in half.

It is clear that is his move full out now, but his overwhelming presence over the last year and a half has been predicated by the fact he was a nominee for POTUS and has had 24-7 direct access to the media. The fact is, come November 9th, that all changes, and his non-stop, direct presence via the media will wane exponentially from that point.

The country will COMPLETELY burnt out from politics, the holidays will bore in, Hillary (god willing) taking over as POTUS will be the story and focus. The only way Trump successfully transforms into a third party is if he successfully is able to attract a LOT of people to run for office under his flag, locally, state and congressionally starting in the municipal elections next year and a lot of people in the mid terms.

If not, he becomes a late night comic laugh line.

The MOST likely outcomes, sorry to say is the republican party doing what it does:

1) Not taking even the first level of responsibility for Trump, playing the victim.
2) Saying they are going to do soul searching or whatever such bullshit.
3) Acting like jackasses toward the democratic president
4) Blaming the democratic president for them acting like jacksasses
5) The media will gleefully allow them to blame the democrat for being the reason they are jackasses
6) The idiots in this county hearing the bullshit and just assuming the democrat is doing some thing wrong

[retrowire]

25. ugh good post

This sounds like truth to me!

[uponit7771]

39. ungh: "5) The media will gleefully allow them to blame the democrat for being the reason .."

yeap, they enabled the most overtly racist person in my lifetime to run as president

[Cosmocat]

42. And this is a good example

Democratic primary was pretty testy with the supporters, but both Hillary and Bernie held themselves to a high standard and debates were very civil and completely infused with policy based discussion.

Republican primary was one long shit show with every debate a completely shit show with Trump dragging everyone into the mud.

The jackass has a video come out that could destroy any candidate, so he pulls the prank he pulled going into Sunday's debate and the debate was just painful and ... the media made it about BOTH of them.

[uponit7771]

62. +1, there's not one of the M$M that can claim with a straight face there's no women tax

[Auggie]

26. Perhaps, but right now I think Dems should be looking ahead to the 2018 mid-terms ...

work with the momentum ... let's thin repuke ranks as much as possible.

[Binkie The Clown]

27. My guess is, when the Republican party dies,

the Democratic part will split into a liberal and conservative branch, and ultimately become two separate parties, thus restoring the balance.

[retrowire]

28. wouldnt that be something. nt

[socialist_n_TN]

43. I agree Binkie......nfm.......

nm

[Blue Idaho]

54. I hope not...

There aren't enough true liberals to win an election in America today.

[PunksMom]

29. If the Republican Party wants to survive

they need to get away from the dictatorship rhetoric. It came full circle with tRump, and they KNEW it would kill them. It had to happen, and it now needs to be addressed in the next few years, or no, there won't be a Republican Party. Jmo

[JCanete]

31. it doesn't matter if the GOP dies. They are just the most obvious

surrogate for moneyed interests, and something will spring up in their place, a "fresh" "new" reaction to the crazy wing of the republicans that the media will fawn over. After all, the rich have the luxury of jumping on and building up the first "movement" that sells, and if it flounders, another will come along.

And in the mean-time, its not like they haven't bought both sides to varying degrees. They still own our system. They still own the media. You rarely get into the White House or Senate without making corporate friends.

Which usually means we can't expect our Democrats to wage a class war, and without galvanizing the middle class and the poor together with a common goal to take back the commons from the people who actually pillaged it, we can continue to expect effective divide-and-conquer tactics on racial and economic lines to keep us at odds with each other.

Sure, shit goes off the rails for them in the short term sometimes, but the direction is constant, and they keep winning.

[maxsolomon]

32. I can dream, can't I?

the death of the GOP is aspirational for me.

[DFW]

33. If you want the Republicans to die, you will have to commit some mayhem, Republican style

THAT is something we're not willing to do. The voices that sing in their heads at night are not imaginary. They are real. Fox "News," National Hate Radio. Unless some urban terrorist is willing to blow up these powerful Republican media arms (and you can't--they are like Hydra: cut off a limb and two more will grow in its place), their base will listen and vote accordingly. They are led not by fiery ideologues who believe the crap they are spouting. They are being led by self-centered politicians who are out for power, and phony religious "leaders" who are out for money. These people don't care if women have abortions or not. They care if they can whip people into a frenzy over the issue. If for some reason they could convince 40 million people that God thinks it's a sin to use Kleenex, they'd drop abortion like a hot potato, and scream about the sinful use of Kleenex all day.

It's all about control and money. People who are easily controlled are attracted to the Republican Party, and so are people with immense amounts of money, because when you have more money than you can ever spend, controlling other people is about the only goal left to achieve. It's why the Republicans are so opposed to education. If people KNOW the earth isn't flat, it's a lot harder to convince them they need you to protect them from falling off the edge of it. By the same token, if you can convince people the earth IS flat, they'll flock to the ones who best convince them that they are the best ones to keep them from falling off.

As long as this dynamic is in place, there will always be a Republican Party, and despite its current turmoil, it will endure and it will thrive. It did after 2008, and it will after 2016. We are fooling ourselves and playing into their hands (again) if we think otherwise.

[tonyt53]

36. They might die as younger people know them, but to us older folks, we remember the old GOP.

They actually used to work for the country instead of the few. Like what they did or not, when it came to the country, the majority chose country over special interests.

[underpants]

51. The media can't let it die. It WAS dead in 2006

But the media and gerrymandering kept it alive. A weak animal makes bad decisions - enter Trump.

[Yavin4]

53. If you don't progress, then you die.

The modern day Republican party has been built around this return to the "wholesome" 1950s, and that cannot ever happen. Even if they attained full control of government at all levels, it won't happen. Too much social and political progress has been made to return to a repressive era. People aren't going back no matter how much hatred they spew.

If they don't die now, then they will in the near future. Nominate a Ted Cruz or a Mike Pence, and the results will be similar.

[Stargleamer]

55. no, 4 years from now they'll be nominating Kasich or Rubio

so things will be back as they were, with them trying to make our plutocracy even worse. There will also be 4 years of Republican obstructionism, reducing Hillary's re-election chances further. Also, endless impeachment hearings for the next 4 years, given their inclinations.

[retrowire]

56. This I see. sigh nt

[former9thward]

58. People predicted Rs would try to impeach Obama for 8 years.

It never happened.

[Stargleamer]

59. I didn't mean to say they would actually succeed in impeaching Hillary

just that I see them holding endless hearings to try to damage her support and re-election chances. I see them as coming up with new alleged wrongdoing (Clinton Foundation discrepancies, etc.) to replace the old (Whitewater, Benghazi, e-mails, etc., etc., etc.,)

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

64. Oy. Get back to us next year - round about February would be good. Kinda busy the next few wks! As

I pointed out elsewhere- the old left-right dichotomy of the last century has just about bit the dust - will be interesting to see what evolves - lines are being drawn in some very different places.

[baldguy]

67. Hopefully, this will lead them to push out the Teabaggers, racists & nutcases.

It may result in a smaller party, but it would be stronger & more focused on real issues that effect real people.

I won't hold my breath, though. It could go in the other direction entirely.

[apnu]

69. I think you are correct.

Once again, conservatives are falling apart. This isn't anything new in American history. We are a liberal nation after all, and its tough for those who deny liberalism to keep it together for very long here.

The best thing I think we liberals can do is keep a steady hand on the wheel and guide America forward through the murky waters conservatives insist on churning.