Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
538 Polls-Plus probability now at all-time high. (Original Post) Adrahil Oct 2016 OP
Georgia and Alaska keep getting lighter and lighter... NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #1
Give it a week and it might be 95% Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #2
He's doubling down on this too. Adrahil Oct 2016 #6
I want I-95. Tommy_Carcetti Oct 2016 #3
DKOS Electoral Vote: misterhighwasted Oct 2016 #4
I won't start to relax until NH gets to double digits LongtimeAZDem Oct 2016 #5
 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
1. Georgia and Alaska keep getting lighter and lighter...
Tue Oct 11, 2016, 10:31 AM
Oct 2016

And toss ups are getting darker and darker blue. By the looks of Now Cast Georgia could potentially flip.

Johnny2X2X

(19,114 posts)
2. Give it a week and it might be 95%
Tue Oct 11, 2016, 10:31 AM
Oct 2016

This is a massive trend and it's just starting. And Trump has one more debate to try to stop the trend because he certainly isn't going to reverse it.

The last debate is next Wednesday, by then Trump will be so desperate that anything is possible for that night. If he's down 10 in the RCP average, and less than 10% in all the odds sites, he is going to be like a cornered animal.

Here's the thing he doesn't get, winning an election takes a dogged and workman like effort of being disciplined and staying on message day after day. There are no short cuts and you can't wait for a game changer or try to create one.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
6. He's doubling down on this too.
Tue Oct 11, 2016, 10:58 AM
Oct 2016

How he thinks this will help is mystery. It really does lend credence to the idea that he is establishing a post-election customer base, rather than actually trying to win at this point.

misterhighwasted

(9,148 posts)
4. DKOS Electoral Vote:
Tue Oct 11, 2016, 10:37 AM
Oct 2016

PRESIDENT FORECAST
ELECTORAL VOTES
10/11/2016

D
CLINTON - 95% chance of winning
324


R
TRUMP - 5% chance of winning
214


LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)
5. I won't start to relax until NH gets to double digits
Tue Oct 11, 2016, 10:44 AM
Oct 2016

At this point we're at a solid 268.

We only need one state out of Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Ohio, but we can't win without at least one.

Of course, if we take Florida, NC, and NH, the election will be essentially over

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»538 Polls-Plus probabilit...