Politico: Trump looks into the polling abyss

[Doctor Jack]

No candidate in the modern era of polling has climbed back from a similar deficit in October to win the presidency.

Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton on average by about five points prior to the leaked video of his sexually aggressive comments. Now, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Monday, he trails by 14.

It might not matter either way: No candidate in the modern era of polling has ever climbed back from more than four points behind over the final month of the campaign to win the presidency.

-snip-

If the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is overstating the direness of his predicament, it will be because Trump manages to bring back some of the Republican voters he yielded this past weekend. In the poll, Trump is winning only 72 percent of Republicans, compared to Clinton, who captures 85 percent of Democrats. Trump’s post-tape performance among self-identified Republicans puts him 21 points behind Mitt Romney’s pace in 2012, according to exit polls.

But simply bringing back the Republican voters who drifted away this weekend won’t be enough, as the pre-tape polls indicate. He’ll also need to build on his numbers among women. If Trump does lose, the margin by which he falls matters a great deal to other Republican candidates on the ticket -- anything approximating a double-digit defeat all but guarantees the House and Senate will go Democratic and Republicans in competitive races even further downballot will be wiped out.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-polling-clinton-229576

[Lanius]

1. Which is why people who say Trump won the last debate are wrong.

All he is doing in the debates is firing up his base, which is with him no matter what. He needs to bring in more women and some minorities, but he isn't with his over-the-top rhetoric and his racism and misogyny. It's over, the question now is by how much will Trump lose and will the Democrats take the Senate.

[Ardoewaan]

2. Exactly

He's still running a primary campaign. The amount of red meat he's throwing out is tremendous. The ever shrinking blok of Trump voters will be enthusiastic voters, but that is all.