NY Times: Dem and GOP private polls show Trump cratering

[geek tragedy]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html

But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans, and women.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuCywUwWEAAHHPC?format=jpg&name=large

[lonestarnot]

1. Must be the crater for the dangerously unhinged. Can we put a lid on it?

[grossproffit]

2. Wouldn't that be great. Truly great. The greatest of great ideas.

[lonestarnot]

3. When it's over he'll be wishing for a crater to hide and escape the bill collectors.

[grossproffit]

7. I've never despised a candidate or their supporters prior to Trump. They are scum.

Sure, I've disliked other candidates but to despise one is a new feeling for me. It does have me energized to #GOTV.

[RonniePudding]

8. They're pretty bad

And you can see the beginnings of the deplorables in this clip from a 2008 McCain rally in Denver. Rotten children making ape noises as they walk past Obama supporters while their ignorant, mouth breathing parents chortle. I'm glad this 8 year old clip is still on YouTube, and I hope the miserable people shown in it have thoroughly enjoyed the last 8 years.

[George II]

14. Sad, but he's worse than baby bush. What a commentary on our elections, eh?

[Nitram]

39. I'm not sure I could say Trump is worse than Bush.

Bush focused so intently on his pet projects of missile defense and invading Iraq that he allowed 9/11 to happen, killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, put the nation Trillions in debt, instituted torture as government policy, suppressed reports by government scientists that supported climate change, never offered clemency to anyone on Death Row no matter how deserving while governor of Texas, refused to fund AIDS projects in Africa if condoms were encouraged or sex workers were involved, let New Orleans drown, possibly stole both of his elections - need I continue?

[NastyRiffraff]

40. I never thought I'd say ANYONE was worse that W

but Trump is. He makes Junior look almost presidential by comparison.

[C Moon]

17. For me it was Romney. There was something about him that epitomized the rich.

And it peaked when the news showed his election night celebration with a small gathering of white people in suits, dresses and tuxedos sipping mixed drinks. That whole election was the 1% vs. the rest of us. This one doesn't feel that way to me: it's more the U.S. vs. the Tea Party nuts.

[workinclasszero]

23. A basket full of deplorables indeed

How could any person of goodwill support Trump?

It just cannot be.

[Gabi Hayes]

24. and, very likely, prosecutors. did anyone ever deserve more

what (I hope) is coming for this creature?

perhaps there is Karma......

[getagrip_already]

38. don't forget....

he is holding ~$50m in the campaign warchest. No doubt he expects to leave with that money and spend it on himself over time.

He will just claim business and personal trips as campaig expenses. As well as legal bills, and it is sheltered from creditors.

[anamandujano]

9. ROFL!

[TheBlackAdder]

21. Unfortunately, even the best attempts at sealing shit in will fail over time.

.

Beneath the cracked and crumbling concrete dome in the middle of the vast Pacific ocean lies 111,000 cubic yards of radioactive waste - the byproduct of 67 nuclear and atmospheric bombs exploded by the US government on Enewetak and Bikini Atolls from 1946 to 1958. That’s equal to detonating in the Marshall Islands more than 1.5 Hiroshima bombs every day, for 12 years.

Scientists now fear that a cataclysm looms as catastrophic weather events, storm surges, and supertyphoons increase in frequency. Locals and scientists worry the Runit Dome could crack wide open, and dump its contamination directly into the Pacific - which would inevitably head towards the Marianas.

Already, large quantities of plutonium - left behind by after the US concluded testing - have gradually submerged, a result of rising sea levels driven by climate change. The US Department of Energy takes no responsibility for the radioactive materials already leaching out of the dome, which tests confirm, has made the soil around the dome more contaminated than its contents.

http://guamblog.tumblr.com/post/123197105468/dome-of-doom

.

[0rganism]

46. only if the crater pays for the lid

[underpants]

4. Ouch

Jay Bergman, a petroleum executive and Republican donor from Illinois, said his fellow contributors were no longer optimistic that Mr. Trump will win, and they have lowered their sights. “They want the guy to make a credible showing,” he said. “They’re afraid that if Trump really screws up and looks bad, then down-ticket, there are going to be a lot more votes for Democrats.”

If Mrs. Clinton wins, putting Tim Kaine, as vice president, there to break a tie, Democrats would need four seats to take control of the Senate. Officials in both parties see Republican incumbents in Wisconsin and Illinois as likely to lose, so Democrats would need to just two more pickups to capture the majority if they retain the rest of their seats.

Republicans worry that Mr. Trump’s difficulties in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbents are caught between their own base and moderate voters appalled by the party’s nominee, could hand Democrats those decisive seats. Senator Kelly Ayotte, the Republican up for re-election in New Hampshire, demonstrated the vise she is in this week when she said at a debate that Mr. Trump would represent a good role model for children, only to recant a few hours later.

[klook]

43. Latest from 538

Senate Update: 6 Really Important Races Are Really Close
By Harry Enten
Filed under 2016 Election

The presidential election is sucking up everyone’s attention, but make no mistake: Control of the next United States Senate remains very much in doubt.

Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1

To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

More: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-6-really-important-races-are-really-close/

I'm not optimistic yet, but feeling a tiny bit less bad about our chances.

[underpants]

44. 👍

[lonestarnot]

56. YES!

[CajunBlazer]

5. K&R

[RonniePudding]

6. I'm beginning to think people are now locking in their choice, literally in some cases

Early voting is in full swing.

[Doctor Jack]

10. Oh shit....

[rpannier]

11. It may be a crater. BUt like all things Donald

It''s HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE

[nikto]

12. Trump shoots for the Moon ...

Here's a Tycho for a psycho ...

[mobeau69]

13. Great piece. Thanks for posting, geek.

If there's a god it should get worse.

[Hortensis]

31. Yes, or even if not? So many trumpster fires,

so many people newly aware and gawking. And Trump's has such an astonishing range of shocking behaviors. He's kind of an equal-opportunity appaller.

(Wonder how many in his own Ne-VAH-dah audience had their own version of an on-the-spot epiphany?)

[BobbyDrake]

15. The meteor that ended the dinosaurs made a smaller crater than Trump.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

16. A crater full of basket cases.

[pansypoo53219]

18. i was polled today. i think it was pop or non partisan.

i do think i made her smile w/ one of my cracks on RUMP. had a GOP push poll the other day. love those.

[Cosmocat]

19. I got a push poll about a week ago

I live in PA.

It was kind of absurd.

The poll had 6 questions, the first 5 were simple, straightforward questions about the presidential race. Ex. If the election was today was would you vote for 1) Hillary Clinton 2) Donald Trump 3) Johnson.

The last "question" was this long winded diatribe about McGintey, something along the lines of "are you aware that McGintey was the spawn of satan, beats puppies, tears the tag off of her pillows ..."

[titaniumsalute]

20. Read the Times article to completion...great piece!!

[BumRushDaShow]

22. As a note about Senate pickups and this article

They seem to forget Indiana - where incumbent GOPer Coats is losing badly to Evan Bayh (who was Senator there before) -

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/indiana/

So when they talk about 4 potential pickups and mention IL, WI, PA, & NH, there is a 5th from IN and it seems to have a stronger polling advantage than even my own state of PA or NH.

PA - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/
NH - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/new-hampshire/

The tossup out there is of course Harry Reid's seat in NV - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/nevada/

NC & MO would be icing on the cake however!

[geek tragedy]

26. I think we win NC, would not be surprised to see MO fall either--we have a great candidate there nt

[BumRushDaShow]

30. I remember back when Harvy Gantt tried twice in NC

and was right on the threshold of having a chance against a then-popular racist fuck. I am hoping that NC is ready now!

And with McCaskill having won MO previously, the potential is there for the other seat, although it seems that the urban areas (notably St. Louis and its neighboring suburbs) need to really really get motivated to start making a difference. It took such a major effort to wake up sleepy entrenched Ferguson to get involved and have some say in their own sordid town's affairs. It has been slow but at least they have made some baby steps and hopefully that engagement will start making a difference for them, and serve as an example for other towns like that.

[llmart]

48. I remember that well.....

Got mercilessly picked on at work by Helms' supporters when they saw my Harvey Gantt bumper sticker on my car. It didn't help that I was a transplanted Yankee

[Doitnow]

51. Anybody see this about raid on largest voter registration office in Indiana?

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/04/police-raid-indianas-largest-voter-registration-office-following-fraud-accusations-from-gop/

[BumRushDaShow]

54. Updated article here

http://cbs4indy.com/2016/10/06/state-police-add-48-counties-to-indiana-voter-registration-project-investigation/

Some analysis here - http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/cops-raid-indiana-voter-registration-project-claiming-fake-voter-registrations/

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

25. Whats the problem GOP-yall are math & science deniers so why worry about this? Its just a hoax

perpetrated by libs to get you to stay home on election day.

[Cakes488]

27. Have we not been waiting for this news for the longest time!! YIPPPPEEEEEE!!!!!

[Wounded Bear]

28. I trust Dem internal polling...

they seem to know what they're doing, and are less likely to distort reality to make the candidate feel good.

Maybe the Repubs learned something from 08/12 but Trump, being an outsider, probably wouldn't pay much attention to his own internal polling. Not to mention his ego, giving him bad news must be a bit like the Hitler bunker scene out there on the internets. That's the big problem with an autocrat at the top who won't accept bad news, he drags the whole system down.

We're about to see how deep the Repub party can sink and try to come back.

The big difference in temperament between Trump and Clinton? When they get bad news, Clinton digs deeper and looks for solutions. Trump is more likely to shoot the messenger, figuratively, I hope.

[geek tragedy]

29. I think it's Congressional/Senate/RNC polling nt

[adigal]

32. I've thought for a while the media is making it a horse race when it really isn't

Not that I'm 100% confident, but I feel much better after Trump's last week. He IS cratering. Just listen to his rally on Saturday night and what he said about going to the movies. He is truly losing him mind. I really believe that. After the movie comments he non sequitur'd off to another absurd discourse on The Apprentice. WTF?????

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/02/as-news-of-trumps-taxes-broke-he-goes-off-script-at-a-rally-in-pennsylvania/

[geek tragedy]

33. yesterday he told a crowd of Nevadans that everyone in the state pronounces "Nevada" wrong nt

[adigal]

34. He is really off the rails - a rich man who always had his stupid, offensive jokes laughed at.

But not anymore.

[Ardoewaan]

57. He jumped the shark!

[Gothmog]

35. Yeah

[bucolic_frolic]

36. The news cycle is about to be Hurricane Matthew for 2-3 days

Run out the clock

[bucolic_frolic]

37. It's a very sad thing

that the outcome of this election if it stands as it is today
is that Trump will be blamed. It's the whole rotten GOP
ideology to the core, the decades of billionaire economic interests
lobbied into ideology, tax codes, policies, hatred, and intolerance
that produced Trump, but he will be blamed, not that he doesn't
deserve it. But blaming Trump allows the Tea Party ideology to morph
and set in concrete in Congress and become opposition to HRC.
They're already working on it by saying she should appoint a Scalia-
clone for the Court, because that's a conservative seat.

THere is no end to their delusions.

[Skittles]

50. CORRECT

all these repukes fleeing Trump now, as if they did not help create this mess

[NBachers]

41. Take the whole fucking party with you and put it out of its misery.

[Fast Walker 52]

42. AMEN

[Rose Siding]

45. Can't wait to see what's lurking in reserve to use against him to finish him off.

There will be more. Clinton's campaign has been flawless at metering the release of endorsements, policy and attacks. It will take all of our help, but I really feel she's got this.

[geretogo]

47. I would like to see the whole GOP party as it is today exported to a country like North Korea . Kim

jung Ill would welcome them as comrades and they would feel more at home there .

[Scurrilous]

49. K & R

[JDC]

52. This is awesome

Although a little off topic, the NYT photo of the Trump prayer circle is priceless. I can only imagine what is going thorough that rattle-can brain of his at that very moment. Thanks for the link(s).

[Retired George]

53. Crash and Burn, Donny!

Crash and burn.

[ThoughtCriminal]

55. Judgement Day

[SunSeeker]

58. LOL And that's before the Category 5 Shitstorm that hit tonight.