2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDemocrats Don’t See Many Undecided Voters
Top Democratic strategists have concluded that at this point, there are very few undecided voters left, based on both public polls and on private polling that attempts to push undecided voters to make a choice. This is the prism through which they are viewing last nights performance. As Jefrey Pollock, a pollster for the pro-Clinton Super PAC Priorities USA, emailed me this morning:
I would bet that there were very few truly undecided voters watching the VP debate last night, partially because there arent many real undecided voters left. If you push those who say they are undecided to say who they might consider, many are not considering either major candidate. Therefore, the pool of undecides that are actually gettable by either Clinton or Trump is tiny.
Meanwhile, a senior Clinton adviser confirmed to the Washington Examiner that for Kaine, a key debate objective was to remind the national audience once again of Trumps stream of insults directed towards women, Mexicans, and President Obama.
Right now, as Politico reported recently, the Clinton campaign is mostly focused on what the composition of the electorate will look like on election day, which essentially entails re-energizing the Obama coalition (Latinos, African Americans, young voters, unmarried women), converting registered or unregistered voters into likely or certain voters, and winning over those drifting to minor parties. These voters were the real target of Kaines frequent airing out of Trumps bigoted quotes, along with college educated whites, especially women, who (Dems hope) will remain alienated by Trumps temperament, which Kaine also highlighted last night.
The story that the latest polling has been telling is that those voters are on track to giving Clinton a winning coalition. As Nate Cohn explains, Clintons lead right now is partly due to a surge in enthusiasm among core Dem voters, as well as her strength among well educated white voters, which is enabling her to move ahead in more diverse states like Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Trump continues to remain a real threat in Rust Belt states, because hes maintaining very durable support among working class whites. But as Cohn notes, if the current state of affairs holds, there just wont be much room for him to fight back with additional gains among white working-class voters.
-snip-
The above is excerpted from this article:
Mike Pence just revealed the core weakness of Trumps candidacy
By Greg Sargent
at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/10/05/mike-pence-just-revealed-the-core-weakness-of-trumps-candidacy/?utm_term=.a3fc56feb8ce
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)The TV "heads" weren't moved by it, but he hit at the very core of a Trump presidency and made Pence take the opposite stance of Trump in regards to Putin. The average voter saw that. Pence also couldn't squirm away from his and Trump's issues with women. Again TV heads didn't care, but the women voters heard it loud and clear.
Wounded Bear
(58,685 posts)apcalc
(4,465 posts)I phone banked for Hillary last night in SE PA. . While many folks don't answer the phone anymore when they see an unfamiliar number ( goes to message machine) , those that did speak to me were strong, Clinton, strong McGinty, strong Dem.
I was encouraged.
One number I called was incorrectly listed as an individual, and turned out to be a pharmacy. I decided to tell the pharmacist that I was a Democratic volunteer...and she said " She's got my vote!"
Too cool. Made me smile.
My kind of people!
TDale313
(7,820 posts)At this point anyone remotely likely to vote probably has decided. Now it really is get out the vote and give your voters reasons to be excited and to show up.