2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum*****BREAKING BATTLEGROUND COLORADO POLL***** CLINTON 49% TRUMP 38%
Hillary Clinton holds an 11 point lead over Donald Trump in Colorado, which is nearly identical to the 13 point advantage she had when Monmouth University polled the state in mid-July. In the contest for U.S. Senate, the Monmouth University Poll finds that Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet has widened his lead over Republican challenger Darryl Glenn to 18 points.
Among Colorado voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 49% currently support Clinton and 38% back Trump. Another 7% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 3% are undecided. In mid-July, the race stood at Clinton 48%, Trump 35%, Johnson 5%, and Stein 3%.
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Among self-identified Democrats, 95% support Clinton - similar to 93% in July. Among self-identified Republicans, 90% support Trump - up from 78% in July. Clinton has widened her lead among independents - 49% to 26% now, compared with 40% to 28% in July.
Clinton also has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black, and Asian voters (71% to 17%) as well as a slight lead among white voters (45% to 42%). These dynamics are basically unchanged from July when she had a 66% to 15% lead among non-white voters and a 44% to 38% edge among white voters.
Clinton has lost some support among women voters, but this has been made up for by a swing in her favor by male voters. Women back Clinton over Trump by 49% to 36% and men support her by a 48% to 41% margin. In July, Clinton had a larger lead among women voters (56% to 30%), but men were divided (39% Clinton and 40% Trump).
Colorado voters continue to hold a more negative view of Trump than Clinton. Fewer than 4-in-10 (37%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 51% hold an unfavorable view of her. However, only 29% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 63% hold an unfavorable view of him. Both of these results have changed little since July.
Clinton has a slight edge over Trump on being seen as someone who understands the concerns of typical voters. While Colorado voters are divided on whether Clinton has this characteristic - 47% say she does and 50% say she doesn't - fewer see Trump as someone who understands the day to day concerns of people like them - 38% say he does and 60% say he doesn't.
Clinton has an even wider advantage on the issue of presidential temperament - something that has been dominating the news since last week's debate. Twice as many voters say Clinton has the right temperament for the job (61%) compared to those who say the same about Trump (31%).
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The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 29 to October 2, 2016 with 400 Colorado residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_CO_100316
writes3000
(4,734 posts)gademocrat7
(10,659 posts)bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)nt
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Where are all our breathless "Polls tightening!!!!" friends?
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)niyad
(113,325 posts)progressoid
(49,991 posts)I think the battle is over for Trump there.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)He would have to win every battleground state and flip NH or PA, states that are polling strong for Clinton. 35~ days to go. (I'll also finally have my degree by then!)
Response to SaschaHM (Reply #9)
Democrats Ascendant This message was self-deleted by its author.
radius777
(3,635 posts)even without any of the other swing states (many of which she is still likely to win).
0rganism
(23,955 posts)apparently, any time a poll shows HRC leading, media pros have to add 5 points to the MOE to arrive at the appropriate headline.
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)would be:
"Clinton leads in Colorado, but concerns remain"
napkinz
(17,199 posts)mcar
(42,334 posts)Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)dont forget that that unchanging USC/LATimes poll that has Trump up 6
mountain grammy
(26,623 posts)I hope Coffman and Tipton lose their jobs too. Buck and Lamborn, no hope. We're stuck with those idiots forever.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)BobTheSubgenius
(11,563 posts)Since mid-July, Trump and his surrogates have uttered how many outrages that would sink almost any other candidate? How could the polling numbers be holding after the debate? The PTSD comment? The Machado debacle?
It's mind-boggling that he has any support beyond the lunatic fringe.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)They would vote for Daffy Duck, if he had an "R" in front of his name.