2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe 5 GOP Senators Most Likely To Work With Democrats
Senate Democrats will enter the new year with an expanded majority of 55-45, having gained two seats in the election. They may be emboldened, but Republicans will retain the ability to slow down or halt their agenda with the use of the filibuster, which requires 41 senators.
If Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to wield the filibuster as routinely as he did in President Obamas first term, Majority Leader Harry Reid will need to pick off at least five Republican senators to advance initiatives.
Here are his five most likely targets.
Susan Collins
The most moderate Republican in the Senate or as Democrats argue, the only one left Collins will be Reids first target when he needs GOP votes.
During Obamas first term, the Maine Republican broke with her party more often than any of her remaining colleagues, and now that her state and the country has resoundingly re-elected the president, she has plenty of reasons to continue.
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Read more:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/five-gop-senators-likely-to-work-with-democrats.php?ref=fpa
Silent3
(15,266 posts)...and fuck the Republicans who want to use for obstructionism.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Seems to me her "moderation" is overrated.
When they compromise then we'll give them credit. Not a day earlier.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Scuba
(53,475 posts)Silent3
(15,266 posts)And at any rate, though she's crazy enough that anything could happen, suddenly being cooperative with Democrats is way, way low on the list of possible manifestations of her insanity.
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)my Senator Grassley. Obama did win our state by a comfortable margin (5.6%). I would also try Latham in the House. King is a lost cause.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)She detoured at least three times recently, no doubt provoked by the Joe Miller race.
I'm not as confident in Dean Heller. He was vulnerable this time, as a pseudo incumbent running against someone with very strong ties to Las Vegas. We really blew that race by not prioritizing it enough. The way it worked out, we won race after race across the country by margins beyond the polling then donated one in Nevada. Berkley made some mistakes but the party itself should have realized the demographic shift in Clark County made the polling questionable at best, the numbers showing Heller with a decisive lead. Jon Ralston said it could go either way but predicted Heller most likely would win by 1%. That's exactly how I estimated it. Nevada is very easy to handicap, given only two major population areas.
Damn shame because Berkley could have served several terms. Now that seat is most likely lost for the foreseeable.
I don't think Heller will be seriously threatened in 2018, which is a midterm year so the numbers out of Clark County won't be as decisive. It could easily be like Harry Reid barely winning in 1998 against Ensign then cruising relatively unopposed in 2004. Heller was relatively moderate as secretary of state but lurched right when pushed by the GOP. In his first congressional bid he had to withstand a Club for Growth challenge from Sharron Angle, and barely escaped. With six years to work with, I don't expect Heller to be paranoid about casting votes to improve his standing among moderates or independents. I suspect he'll return to the far right or nearby. His concern would be a primary challenge in 2018.
railsback
(1,881 posts)The GOP plan to take back the White House failed miserably. With the changing demographics, McConnell isn't going to have such a tight noose around his caucus any more. There will be more than 5 Senators who will be willing to work with Obama.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)Were I a GOP member of Congress, I would not give two shits for what my leaders told me (particularly if I were in the House and up for re-election next year). I'm going to look at what my constituents want, keeping in mind I may have to fend off a Tea Party challenger.
PoliticalBiker
(328 posts)...Harry Reid NEEDS to MAKE THEM FILLIBUSTER!!
MAKE THEM stand at that podium and speak... make their case, read the phone book, read the financial times... whatever, but make them do what you are supposed to do when you fillibuster.... TALK
This crap about registering a fillibuster then going golfing is bullshit. Let's see what how their resolve is when the senate is kept in session and open while they talk their coward asses off.... let's see if they have the stomach for that!
And while he is at it, Reid needs to change the senate rules back to a simple majority. No more of this super-majority crap the republicrats used to block everything the dems tried to do
Filibuster Harry
(666 posts)Bake
(21,977 posts)See how many of them have the legs for it.
Bake
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)AlinPA
(15,071 posts)Teabaggers will primary her out if she goes near the Oval Office or is seen comunicating with Democrats.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)While these 2 Senators from Maine did vote for Obama's Supreme Court nominees, and a few other things like ending DADT, in the end they almost always came down on the side of the Republicans.
The Democrats spent months tailoring the ACA to meet Snowe's requests, and then in the end she didn't even vote for it.
So I don't see Collins breaking with the Republicans very often either.
butterfly77
(17,609 posts)they do the same thing with lieberman and McCain they continue to play that they are moderate they are moderately full of shit,I agree with you on Collins and Snowe.
Lindsay Graham is another one Graham,McCain and lieberman were the driving forces in keeping the troops in Iraq they were on tv everytime the Dems suggested we leave with their bullshit slogans about "Victory," " Stay the course" Freedom Fries and other nonsense.
Cha
(297,655 posts)those votes at all.
Cha
(297,655 posts)of the Blue States they represent. Except for Lindsey.. I believe that when I see it.