******MONMOUTH POLL-CLINTON 49-EXECRABLE 46/46-42 IN FOUR WAY*****

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_092616/


At a glance Execrable is doing a point ot two better among LVs so HRC has more room to grow.

[molova]

1. Looks like Bloomberg is an outlier

Only poll showing him ahead lately.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Better to follow the average which shows a a 2-4 Clinton lead.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. link

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_092616/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Thank you, Loki

I did post grad work in Poli-Sci. In another life we could have been polling partners/consultants.

[bettyellen]

4. Did they do a two way too?

[book_worm]

6. 49-46

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Up 3 in 2 way. Up 4 in 3 way

[book_worm]

5. So she's still ahead? Oh what a relief

She's been ahead in 99% of these polls yet some DUers only care about the ones she is behind in.

[ismnotwasm]

8. Yes

It's unfortunate

[Iliyah]

10. Thanks DSB! Enjoying the "hot" weather here in So. Cali?

From what I see from the polls, HRC is ahead in the Nationals and ahead in the Electoral College. Saw HRC is ahead in Florida and tied in Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It's supposed to cool off...

[MyNameIsKhan]

12. Here is the problem Ann Selzer is using 2004 LV screen

All her polls are off.

[Sugarcoated]

13. Who's Anne Selzer?

[MyNameIsKhan]

18. Selzer is A+ rated pollster on 538

She has been doing Iowa Polls for Des Moine Register which are considered Gold Standard. She has first time diversified outside Iowa with Bloomberg. Here Ohio Poll had HRC -6

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. She has women and men comprising 50% of the electorate each.

Women have been comprising 52-53% of the electorate in every election since 1984.

[LenaBaby61]

17. Here is the problem Ann Selzer is using 2004 LV screen.

That says it in a nutshell. But we know that Selzer is a Nate favorite: 2004 LV demographics and ALL

[Charles Bukowski]

15. State polls are noisy as hell right now

Iowa tied again, but Colorado suddenly a dead heat? HRC up in a few Florida polls, but fading in PA?

HRC up an average of 4 points in the last week of polls but dropping like a rock again at 538?

My head is spinning.

[DarthDem]

16. Can't Blame You

. . . and you're approaching it all rationally and calmly, which is fresh and different for DU.

First, ignore 538. Silver has jumped the shark.

Second, I just think you have to temper polls with learned history and common sense. PA didn't tighten that much in a few days, and as Plouffe said there aren't enough Repube votes outside Philadelphia to overcome a likely 500,000 vote Hillary lead there. IA is tight. Many reasons why Trumpster should fail in FL and NC (where he trails today per a GOP-leaning pollster). CO, like NV, is always difficult to poll and the Dems best the polls, at least recently. Oh, and the garbage CNN poll of CO had Bennet leading by 10, making the top line impossible.

[MyNameIsKhan]

19. Precisely Ed Randall who operates Philly machine has promised 600k votes

Pittsburg will fall in place ... No way Trump can win PA.

[Sugarcoated]

20. There's no Philly machine except for a well oiled GOTV

and Ed Rendell doesn't operate anything. What the fuck are you talking about?

[MyNameIsKhan]

21. Why are you so angry? Here is Philly machine

Ed Randal help building a database of 600k reliable voters, the outreach program for GOTV. The well defined structure of precint captains and solid church outreach... community leaders and voter accessibility. This bank has been a reliable source of votes from 2004 but first time fully realized its potential in 2008 and exceed 600k votes. Do you live in Philly?

[Sugarcoated]

22. I'm not angry, lol

I just called you on your bullshit is all. It's Rendell not Randal