Debate Advice Based on the Past and Present
The first Presidential debate of the 2016 election cycle is almost upon us. A record 100 million viewers are expected to tune into the verbal battle between the first women ever to capture a major party’s nomination and a man who is undoubtedly one of the most unusual major party nominees in the history of this country. Everyone seems to believe this is going to be HUUUUGE, but is it really? Many experts who have studied Presidential debates down through the years, beginning with the first televised debate between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, agree that the perceived importance of Presidential debates has been more hype than reality.
For instance, studies show that over the years there have been little differences in the polls results before and after the debates. In only two cases, in 1980 and 2000, have the poll leader and his opponent switched places in the polls after the first debate. In every case, the poll leader after the first debate won the election, regardless of the outcome of the following debates. Therefore historically the best indicator of the ultimate winner of a Presidential election is the person leading in the polls going into the first debate.
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However, all of these studies have been conducted using data gathered from previous Presidential debates which have always featured basically equal candidates who are both extremely well briefed on the issues. Donald Trump is the total wild card. Everyone who has paid the slightest bit of attention to this electoral contest knows that Trump is nowhere near the equal of Hillary Clinton in experience or knowledge of the pertinent issues and he apparently isn’t much interested in spending the time to get up to speed. He would rather just “wing it”. However, in the era of Washington gridlock, when the public is sick and tired of the inability of the political establishment to address the nation’s problems, the businessman turned reality show star who presents himself as the outsider alternative has done well with this totally unconventional approach.
Hillary is widely considered by far the more experienced and refined candidate so public expectations of Trump in the debates are lower than those of his opponent. However, let’s not lose sight of the fact that he bullied his way past many seasoned politicians in the Republican debates using lies, name calling, personal attacks and almost no substance. If there are those who have seen this kind of politician before on the national stage, it isn’t anyone living today. On the other hand Trump has lately been trying to present himself as more Presidential, so how does he meld that persona with the style that made him successful in previous debates? However, how does Hillary, the policy wonk, reinforce her image as the best prepared candidate while exposing Trump as the deplorable fraud that he is?
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Debate Advice Based on the Past and Present
