Election Model Update 9/24//2016

[Loki Liesmith]

9/21 Update

9/22 Update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:

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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
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Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 72.3629756738%
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 291.8536
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 293.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 297

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# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
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Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 63.2426988922%
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 283.249
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 284.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 281

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 2.45106856654

Analysis: Appears that recent solidification in polls has boosted Clinton's numbers in the intantaneous projection. The extrapolated odds at election day still look about the same.

Clinton Still Favored.

[bigdarryl]

1. What about the projected 3rd party numbers

[Loki Liesmith]

2. In 10000 runs

They don't win once.
That's all my model cares about

[Dem2]

3. Significant digits, my man

Leaving those brazillion digits on the end is not a good practice.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. Too lazy

My model spits it all out to screen I cut and paste.

[Dem2]

5. Yes, you are

Tech-pro's need to scold you