Nate Silver says I should be nervous about the election. Here’s why I’m not too nervous.

[Fast Walker 52]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/09/22/nate-silver-says-i-should-be-nervous-about-the-election-heres-why-im-not-too-nervous/?utm_term=.741dea4ab14b

There are a few additional factors that make me even more confident about a Clinton victory:

1. Contra Trump’s claims that he will change the map by bringing out lots of new voters, none of the data I have seen suggests that this is true. There’s no hidden “reserve army” of Trump supporters in places such as Connecticut or Oregon.

2. Although Trump has surged in places such as Ohio and Florida, recent polling in crucial swing states for Clinton’s bare-minimum electoral path to 270 continue to show her with a comfortable margin of victory.

3. I’m assuming that Clinton’s vastly superior ground game and data operation will give her a boost of one to three percentage points above the polling averages, which could make the difference in places such as North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.

4. The last major moment endogenous to the campaign, when Trump can overtake Clinton, is the debates. And I think Clinton’s extensive debating experience, combined with her recent one-on-one debates with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, leaves her far better prepared than Trump.

Really good piece from Dan Drezner with some interesting points. Of course, what he doesn't say exactly, is that Clinton wants people to think it's a close race, in order to keep supporters and on the fence voters complacent.

[TonyPDX]

1. I'm getting whiplash from reading Nick's analysis.

He seems to enjoy whipping up the frenzy. Thanks doG the election isn't far away.

[Fast Walker 52]

8. you mean Nate?

[TonyPDX]

11. Yup

[phallon]

2. Nate needs clicks

[bullimiami]

3. I think every sane person in this country should be nervous until after the Election.

[Cosmocat]

6. Yeah

the stupid in this country is so deep, and the media ALWAYS games elections to handicap the D at the very least and often to prop up the R like they did with W.

But, this election FAR more than any other has been completely driven by the media both consistently tearing down Hillary and normalizing Trump.

IF the media were not doing these things, this election would over right now.

[Fast Walker 52]

9. this is true.

[uponit7771]

10. +1

[MiniMe]

12. I've been nervous about elections ever since Raygun

Just GOTV!!

[LAS14]

4. Actually, I'm glad for the Nate Silver...

... polling. I believe Upshot more, which gives her a 73% chance of winning as of today, but I also agree with some columnist (can't remember who/where) who said that Hillary's greatest vulnerability is lack of excitement and the Nate Silver stuff in the news may wake up some stay-at-homes.

[randome]

5. The voters decided against Romney and Palin. Trump is measurably worse so I'm not worried, either.

So get out and vote!
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Meredith McIver approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[MFM008]

7. I'm getting a little tired

Of Mr. Silver.