2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton Has Gained 2.7 Points Nationally Since Last Week
I did some basic math on the polls released this week compared to those released last week and here is what I found.
Average Clinton Lead Last Week: 1.3 points
Average Clinton Lead This Week: 4.0 points
Maybe this info has been lost in the shuffle of sporadic state polls and projections but that is quite the jump (about 300%). And as they say, the state polls tend to lag behind the national polls, so...we shall see
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)opposite you posted Trump is losing ground
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)for them and a great wave of voters coming our way.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)I can understand your frustration with posters who consistently use and analyze data points.
And I certainly empathize with anyone whose best reponse is a petulant, "good luck with that," as it certainly illustrates a breadth of knowledge and wisdom not many people posses...
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)EricMaundry
(1,619 posts)American fascism is about to go down in a maelstrom of orange hair dye and bitterness.
GWC58
(2,678 posts)is tRump won't be the blustering bully he was at the gop debates. More subdued but not necessarily any better. There might even be a "deer in the headlights look. That would be nice!
He will probably come across as less aggressive while making stupid, dismissive faces and just more flustered and incompetent. Similar to how he looked in his Mexico trip.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)before and after, and he typically slipped a bit in the polls after most of the debates while another contender surged: for example, after he insulted Fiorina's looks, she surged. However, after her flagrant lies about Planned Parenthood were called out, she tanked. The GOP problem was that each person that surged against Trump was weak and flawed in their own way, so their surge never lasted. (Similar to how Romney was the 2012 frontrunner, and Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum, etc took turns at being the #2 on the list...)
If Trump slips after the first debate, it will likely be a deathblow to him.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Sunny05
(865 posts)<Insert crowd roar here.>
TrogL
(32,822 posts)That's why everybody is yapping about the swing states.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)I think the polls there will get better.
Johnny2X2X
(19,151 posts)Several very good state polls in VA, CO, WI, and NH the last 36 hours. Her firewall is holding strong and FL is looking pretty good too. OH is the only real flip he got through all of this and that's by no means out of reach for her, and he needed a heck of a lot more than just Ohio.
Through all of this there was never a point where she would have lost to him if the election were right then. Trump has never led in this race save for possibly a day or two after the GOP convention.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)it was pretty obvious what little conscience and decency they had in them kicked in because they had sensed that they had gone too far in tearing Hillary down (part standard GOP good/Dems bad marching orders, part wanting to make it a horse race) and they very clearly changed their tone and content, eased up on the bullshit thrown at Hillary and less trying to protect or prop up Trump.
People keep wanting to blame Hillary or make it about her, and yeah, she says or does some stupid shit sometimes. But, if the media was playing this all straight, not carrying water or even gleefully putting forward the right wing slander against Hillary and simply calling Trump for what he is, she would have a monstrous lead.
But, as is, somehow BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA, the dimwits in this country truly believe she is more dishonest than Donald Trump.