2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNC Poll by PPP: not a great result
Donald Trump 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Gary Johnson 6
Clinton/Trump head to head is tied at 47
This is not a "sick Hillary effect". Poll was Sunday-Tuesday.
NC will be a hard state to win.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)we need to be up there.
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)I would label this as a 'concern' post...and you completely misinterpreted polls as well.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)For what it is worth, I am not "concerned" about much. I get annoyed at freakouts here and do try and preempt them if possible.
I stand by my record here. I am a strong HRC supporter and I know what I'm talking about.
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)'concern' post...can you see why people might wonder about your motivation...and there are several great polls for Hillary out which are ignored.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Even president Obama lost North Carolina in 2012. We have a ton of ways to win. Hillary must win Ohio and should be there personally at least weekly from now on.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Maybe that will change.
underpants
(182,834 posts)Always was going to be.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Trump still can't get past his underperformance cycle in national polling , but it's just a tick high enough to make OH a challenge.
By the end of today things will be a lot more clear. Until the debate
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)She easily gets to 270 without it. PA/VA are.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)The difference between now and 2004 is that she's going to win Colorado and Virginia.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Love that about us.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)If she finishes within 2 of Trump in NC on election day then it won't be a landslide we hope for perhaps, but she will have had a good day and likely also have narrow senate control.
Mary Mac
(323 posts)That should help.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)Of course, it will be a hard state to win. As a resident, I'm fully aware of the way this state flows back and forth and being statistically tied is great for Clinton at the stage in the game. It only gets better when you factor in the Advertising that she has put into my state and the ground game.
piechartking
(617 posts)Those numbers are actually up over 2012
http://www.advertiser-tribune.com/page/content.detail/id/1332192/Early-ballots--Clinton-sees-strength-in-NC-but-lags-in-Iowa.html?isap=1&nav=5015
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)piechartking
(617 posts)"In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, more than 53,000 voters had requested ballots, and 2,939 had been returned, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. That's up from 47,313 ballots requested during a similar time frame in 2012.
Broken down by party, Democrats made up 40 percent of the ballots returned so far compared to 33 percent for Republicans. At this point in 2012, Republicans were running slightly ahead, 43 percent to 38 percent, in ballots submitted. Republican Mitt Romney narrowly won the state that year and it's difficult to see how Trump could accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House without winning North Carolina."
So seems like out of the near 3000 returned 1200 are Dems and 1000 Republicans, and the rest I guess are unaffiliated.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Clinton would be ahead in NC 50-48. So, we have to hope that undecideds have a moment of clarity when entering the booth.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)I would give the tie to Clinton based on ground game, so certainly not out of reach (Romney had to pour a lot of resources into NC in order to pull out a narrow win in 2012).
Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)
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Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Lebam in LA
(1,345 posts)What is obama/trump thing?????
Codeine
(25,586 posts)and dreamers sail on the sea of love.
Makes about as much sense as your post.
riversedge
(70,244 posts)a good shot at being GOV. --maybe his shirt-tails will pull Hillary along???
....For the first time this entire cycle PPP finds a clear leader in the race to be North Carolina's next Governor: Roy Cooper. Cooper's at 46% to 41% for Pat McCrory, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 2%. When undecideds and Cecil voters are asked who they'd pick if they had to choose between Cooper and McCrory, Cooper's lead ticks up to 50/43.
McCrory continues to be unpopular, with only 41% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. This makes 39 months in a row we've found his approval rating under water. Voters are generally having a positive reaction as they've become more familiar with Cooper, with 40% of voters rating him positively to 32% who have a negative opinion.
The story in this race is Cooper's strength with independent voters. He leads McCrory 44-33 with them in the full field, and 50-34 with them in the head to head. By contrast, McCrory defeated Walter Dalton by a 2:1 margin with independents in 2012. But they have largely soured on him with now only 36% approving of him to 49% who disapprove.
HB2 is causing McCrory big trouble as well. By a 20 point margin voters want to see it repealed- just 32% support keeping it on the books, to 52% who think it should be overturned. Among pivotal independent voters, there's 56/29 support for repeal. There may be one simple reason HB2 is so unpopular- it's a bill targeting LGBT people, yet only 19% of North Carolinians say they have a negative opinion of LGBT people, to 47% with a positive one and 34% who are indifferent. A bill cutting the rights of a group of people that only a small slice of the electorate has a problem with isn't going to be very popular.......................
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)SCliberal91294
(170 posts)Lag national polls. I would say it's a tie. Trump's not having a good week either.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)They appear to lag because they are taken less often.
However this was taken this week
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)The results are a statistical tie. If Hillary gets the early votes banked AND has a very good ground game then she can still win. NC would be nice for Hillary but Trump NEEDS it to win.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Are Republicans. Wow. Great news is what this is.
"sick Hillary effect"
You don't need to put your own words in quotation marks.
Response to NCTraveler (Reply #20)
Name removed Message auto-removed
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It's clear that you aren't being serious.
What's gone is any logic or even basic thought in your analysis.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)In fact, Florida is looking very positive lately, which would end election night very early.
And it very, very debatable whether Ohio should be considered gone by any stretch of the imagination.
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)They are tossups in every election...and I dispute that some that you mention are 'gone' Ohio is not gone, Florida is not gone and some others as well. We have not won AZ in 50 years or more...how about a dose of reality.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)no doubt about this one
thanks for playing yeah 46 post hmmm
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)winstars
(4,220 posts)Norbert
(6,040 posts)I don't expect a win in those two states but it will make Orangeboy spend time on the states Romney didn't need to campaign in.
Last I saw FL leaning HRC & Ohio dead heat. Even NV & IW are close. With national polls trending slightly HRC the latter three may get reeled in on the good side.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Bad Thoughts
(2,524 posts)Whether or not Dems can win it it secondary to using it to force Republicans to spend money in a state that they believe they should win.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Wanted to win NC though. Still do. 2 out of 3 elections would equal a changed map for sure.
Demsrule86
(68,593 posts)which we lost for years until 2008.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)main concern at this point is the similar polling we were seeing out of NC and a few midwestern light blues. I am hopeful that different dynamics at work in those states keep them blue.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I post what I want. You can read or block me. Your call. Makes no difference to me.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)All I know is that most of the posts I see from you predict doom and gloom for Hillary. Meh.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I post data and my analysis of data. Your feelings about that data are irrelevant to me.
Mary Mac
(323 posts)We could win NC if we strengthen the local races. Hillary might need to run on local coattails.
Response to Loki Liesmith (Original post)
factfinder_77 This message was self-deleted by its author.