2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNYTimes The Upshot: Hillary has a 75% chance of winning.
Last edited Tue Sep 20, 2016, 09:17 PM - Edit history (1)
And Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium estimates it as 81%, with a 64% chance of controlling the Senate.
We need to work hard, but let's not panic about another aggregator's estimate.
GO, DEMOCRATS!
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
The Upshots elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clintons chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 45-yard field goal.
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or the Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organizations estimate for who will win the presidency:
SNIP
http://election.princeton.edu
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)the article 2016 election - who will be president..there is a chart that demonstrates where the race has shifted....excellent info - be well
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot
Vogon_Glory
(9,118 posts)I finally got off my backside and started volunteering. I did my first round of phone-banking this evening.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)... the odds of NFL kickers making field goals from different places on the field for the math illiterates who have been couch potatoes every Sunday for life.
leebaba1992
(53 posts)How accurate were they last year
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)He is the new Nate.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)That 538 website has been giving me the willies big time...