2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI'm Going to Toss Out A Prediction
Usually I use my magic crystals to look into the future but they are off being cleaned right now, so I will have to do this the old fashioned way...blood sacrifice.
Now, keep in mind that I was right about Clinton jumping in support in June, falling in early July, having a huge bounce in August, and that she would drop in late August, so my powers are pretty on point this year.
Here is what is going to happen. Trump's fuck ups late last week and into this week have stalled out any gains that he was making. I believe for the next week or so, we will see a slow but apparent drift back towards Hillary. Nothing dramatic, maybe a gain of 2ish points nationally. Essentially back to where she was 2 weeks ago or so. A little bit of breathing room but still uncomfortable.
The first debate will likely be a clusterfuck for Trump. He is too unprepared, too antsy to stand still for 90 minutes while people question his intelligence, and no one will be there to stop him from saying something stupid, including no teleprompter. Of course Trump's apologists will claim he won and looked "presidential" and will try to shift focus to when hillary cleared her throat 15 minutes and 42 second in or when she criticized trump for something but technically this one study says he is right and blah blah blah. Also people like Andrea Mitchell and Fox News will say that Trump did better than expected therefore he won but most people will say that Clinton won handily.
The polls a few days later will show her climbing to roughly 6.5 points ahead where she will hover around until mid-October. Then we will see a slow drop in her numbers to about 5ish points on average around election day. The media will talk about the "tightening race" in those final 2-3 weeks. On election day, she will win by 4.8-5.2 points. The talk after that will be "it was a lot closer than people thought" and "he came close even without support from the establishment", even though he will lose by quite a lot.
We will hear from the wingers that trump ran "an insurgent" campaign against the "establishment and the elite" and nearly won. Then after about 6 months, no one will really talk that much about Trump anymore. Most people, left and right, will want to forget about the national nightmare which was Trump's candidacy.
The end. The future is written. We cannot change it, we can only experience it.
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(52,317 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)unblock
(52,317 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)If the economy is still good and the fucking terrorists are kept at bay, we win. Anything less......
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(52,317 posts)which pretty much means only if we're in a recession.
unfortunately, we're very unlikely to go 12 years without one and we're already in year 8.
zonkers
(5,865 posts)GP6971
(31,203 posts)I don't think you're too far off.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)Am I to believe that the race seems to tighten in September then go back to August numbers in October. Means we have a fairly large group of people with soft support for a candidate.
Or are polls manipulated in September then they revert back.
I know what I believe.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)Bookmarking!
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,895 posts)It is quite depressing to think that Trump will not lose by double digits. As unpopular as Hillary Clinton is (which is something her most ardent supporters should never forget OR dismiss) the prospect of a President Donald Trump should put the fear of something or another into almost everyone.
pnwmom
(108,991 posts)of most of the media, have TAUGHT us to view her negatively, since she first appeared on the scene in Arkansas, still bearing her maiden name. She finally changed to Clinton, and Bill got re-elected. Then she made the mistake, as the new FLOTUS, of saying she wanted to use her education and do more than bake cookies in the W.H.
That's when the real witch hunt began. And that IS quite depressing.
Augiedog
(2,548 posts)headphones.
relayerbob
(6,554 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)I might be psychic