2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary leads by NINE POINTS in PA, and McGinty is 5 points ahead of a sitting GOP Senator!
Pennsylvania is going to win it ALL for us!
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A new poll has placed Democrat Katie McGinty ahead of Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate race.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll, released over the weekend, shows McGinty ahead of Toomey by 43 percent to 38 percent among poll participants.
The poll also found Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to have a nine-point lead over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Several polls released shortly after the Democratic National Convention in Philly in July also reflected progress for both Clinton and McGinty, though an Emerson poll released in late August placed Toomey over McGinty by 46 percent to 39 percent.
http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/09/20/pa-senate-race-poll
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)early on Nov. 8. We want it blue by a huge percentage. We want major turnout.
And we want Toomey long gone from the upper chamber. He's bad news from the word go and all of History won't miss him one little bit.
BootinUp
(47,185 posts)new is this poll? Thought I saw it posted a couple days ago.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/09/20/pa-senate-race-poll/#fF62sP5UtHbLI4SL.99
triron
(22,019 posts)to blow away the Ipsos poll there.
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)6 weeks to go. This has to hold or increase
http://www.emilyslist.org/candidates/katie-mcginty
SNIP
A champion for Pennsylvanians, wholl help win back the Senate for Democrats
The race for the Senate in Pennsylvania will be among the most closely-watched of the cycle.
Katie will need our help to raise money early on, so she can build momentum and keep it going through the general electionand her campaign will be key to Democrats chances of winning back the Senate from the Republicans. Katie is known for her focus and her strong work ethic.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)But it's definitely good news. I will feel better when I see polling a few days from now that reflects the most recent events.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)triron
(22,019 posts)know of any new Ohio polls?
Tarheel_Dem
(31,239 posts)presidency.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Obama won it by 10 in 08'.
leebaba1992
(53 posts)CO, MI, and Wisconsin. We need those
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)ffr
(22,671 posts)Keep up the GOTV effort!
bucolic_frolic
(43,272 posts)Our platform and ideology is surging, Republicans are hiding from Trump
We have a chance and are accelerating
Odd that we hold fewer national offices, and fewer yet state offices,
but we have the surrogates, they have losers
Voters are tired of obstructionism
They know Obama has been roadblocked and he is very popular right now -
what does that tell you?
Don't spare the horses, James
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Any hope of an upset by the Dump must include PA.
William769
(55,147 posts)GeoWilliam750
(2,522 posts)I have seen hundreds do Trump signs and ONE Hillary sign. Whilst Philly may go yet more blue, much of the rural state seems still deep red, and signs do not equal votes, but this is anything but in the bag. I have also seen a couple of smaller signs in restaurants supporting Joe Paterno.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Even Allentown/Bethlehem, Scraton/Wilksebarre are Democratic.
There are several counties on the river in the north that are trending blue.
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)also
GeoWilliam750
(2,522 posts)I saw only Trump signs in and around State College.
When other posters say, "Don't worry about it, Hillary has it in the bag", it makes me worry more, not less. There is no room for complacency.
If the Democrats do no get out the vote everywhere, there is still a chance that we could lose to the man that is probably the worst major party candidate in history.
Number9Dream
(1,562 posts)Charlie Dent (R) is running unopposed again. Before him was Toomey. I've lived outside Nazareth for over 25 years. My current state rep. is Marcia Hahn (R) and senator Mario Scavello (R). The Allentown Morning Call and WFMZ TV are pro Republican. The NRA has tremendous sway in the Lehigh Valley. Obama was a fluke. I'm seeing many Trump signs and bumper stickers and none for Clinton.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)very high turnout then. Add in Pittsburgh and the northeast corner to that list.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Eastern Pennsylvania will clean Trump's clock, along with many in the very far West.
Don't let it worry you.
NYC Liberal
(20,136 posts)But a much smaller fraction of the population actually lives there.
napi21
(45,806 posts)Plus, if you can believe my husband, whose father was born & raised outside of Bellefonte, Pa. Dad used to always take his kids there to see Grandpa & the rest of the relatives. Anyway, my husband says those folks up there never vote. They live like true mountain men. Hunting & fishing all the time. Most of the women don't work outside the home, and everybody HATES the Democrats because THEY'RE commin' to take your guns!
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)Now add in that putting a Clinton sign up anywhere other than a deep blue enclave even in blue areas is asking for vandalism at best and borderline suicidal at worst and it might show why Pennsyltucky signs are not a reliable indicator.
RobinA
(9,894 posts)Hillary just isn't getting the signs out. I'm in the SE Pa 'burbs, totally Hillary territory supposedly, and I see a sprinkling of Trump signs and no Hillary signs. Or Toomey signs, or McGinty signs. You can barely tell there's an election around here, although I'm sure that will change. In fact, the ONLY signs I see are Trump. And have actually seen these Trump signs for awhile now.
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)So there're others probably who've wanted to stay off the radar. I think it's because I've heard about so many people's signs being stolen and I was worried about the Trump nuts, but I've also seen a few friends on FB who despise Trump but cave in to, 'They both suck' false equivalancy and will vote for her but don't want to broadcast it. I'm gonna get one today if the campaign office has one. I usually volunteer closer to the election and go door to door in my neighborhood to gotv and I will this election.
JI7
(89,262 posts)But it ignores the minority and dem heavy area.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Pakid
(478 posts)on the 8th and voting for Hillary and Katie
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website has corrected the poll results from +8 for Clinton to +7 for Clinton and assigned a rather mediocre weight to poll - 1.00 compared to the top rated Quinnipiac University and YouGov Pennsylvania polls which is weighted at 1.32.
With this poll, Hillary now leads in Silver's combination of recent polls by +2.9% - 47.0% to 44.1% and Hillary is given a 67.3% chance of winning Pennsylvania by Silver.
The Muhlenberg College poll is the latest poll and the only poll which has been conducted in September (Sep. 12-16); all of the others in that corrected poll average on the site were conducted in August. Maybe this better score is the beginning of a new trend.
napi21
(45,806 posts)how the heck does the media bozos have now polling almost every day? They give the impression that there's polling results coming out all the time.