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2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Tue Sep 20, 2016, 02:08 PM Sep 2016

Most encouraging data point from Upshot/Siena voter file poll of Florida this week.

That poll showed either a Clinton +1 or a tie, depending on matchups.

But, there's a hidden structural advantage for Clinton.

LV undecideds in Upshot/Siena by *self-reported* party ID

I 39, D 26, R 13

By *actual* party registration:

D 52 (!!!), I 31, R 17

https://twitter.com/patrickruffini/status/778290746457751553?refsrc=email&s=11

(presumably some didn't offer an answer to party ID)

3 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Most encouraging data point from Upshot/Siena voter file poll of Florida this week. (Original Post) geek tragedy Sep 2016 OP

Why you should never unskew! Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #1

also shows how not all Independents are really independent geek tragedy Sep 2016 #2

Undecided were 8points MyNameIsKhan Sep 2016 #3

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

1. Why you should never unskew!

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 02:13 PM

Sep 2016

look how different those numbers are.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

2. also shows how not all Independents are really independent

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 02:15 PM

Sep 2016

Granted some southern Democrats tend to be Republican/Trump friendly, but you'd have to like Clinton's chances of gaining votes from a pool with those registration numbers.

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

3. Undecided were 8points

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 20, 2016, 02:18 PM

Sep 2016

The key will be I & D here because R will split between Johnson and Trump.

Ifs also possible many R will vote Hillary after GHWB voting for her news. We need more part officials coming out to encourage crossovers.

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