Why Hillary Will Win

[tgards79]

Nervous that Hillary is going to lose? Relax....this is an analytically-based assessment of why Hillary Clinton's chances of winning are much higher than the prediction sites are currently calling. (But keep working for her....don't get complacent.)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/09/why-hillary-will-win.html

[vadermike]

1. how good

is this dude? seems pretty solid to me.. and the Senate goes Blue which looks about right with current projections...also has us up 22 seats in the House....one can hope so.. I will be happy with us Keeping the Presidency and getting back the Senate

[CajunBlazer]

2. Not at all impressed!

When Hillary's "solid" and "lean" state add up to 267 electoral votes (out of the 270 to win) and you have to throw in her "toss up" states to get to her grand total of only 287 electoral states, that's not very promising.

Though it is marginally better than Trump who needs his 86 "toss up" states votes to get to his 251 electoral vote total.

That's why Nate Silver is currently giving Hillary a 59.3% chance of winning instead of the 89.3% chance he was giving her right after the Democratic convention.

Is anyone happy with Donald Trump having a 2 in 5 chance of living in the White House? I'm certainly not.

[tgards79]

4. Follow the logic of the article

Trump is at a high, Hillary at a low, and she is still ahead. Trump has to win states he has never lead and is not leading in now, he has a terrible organization and much less money, and he is a gaffe machine.

[gabeana]

5. That is not cajons MO

Always seems to post negative

[CajunBlazer]

8. BS!!!

Go back and look at all of my posts -I have been sounding the alarm lately because the race is getting so close that it is important that we contribute and GOTV.

And learn how to spell "Cajun", unless you are trying to be disrespectful on purpose.

[tgards79]

9. I'm thinking...

...you are negative on the article solely because you fear it will breed complacency. So you are doing a disservice to the article. The article is completely objective, with the only goal being accuracy. And it is accurate.

[CajunBlazer]

11. Wrong.....

Statistics do matter - in 2008 Nate Silver predicted the winner in every state except one. In 2012 he had a perfect record - 50 out of 50. Right now these are is correct, combined poll numbers for competitive states with their number of electoral votes (remember that Hillary once lead in all of these states):

Georgia 16 (Trump +5.1%)
Arizona 11 (Trump +4.2%)
Iowa 6 (Trump +2.5%)
Ohio 18 (Trump +1.2%)
North Carolina 15 (Trump +0.8%)
Florida 29 (Trump +0.4%)
Nevada 6 (Trump +0.3%)

Colorado 9 (Clinton +2.7%)
New Hampshire 4 (Clinton +2.7%)
Pennsylvania 20 (Clinton +3.4%)
Michigan 16 (Clinton +3.7%)
Wisconsin 10 (Clinton +3.8)
Virginia 10 (Clinton +4.6%)
Minnesota 10 (Clinton +5.1%)

With the states shown Hillary has 288 electoral votes - a 18 vote cushion. If the race stabilizes I like Hillary's chances. However, remember the consistent trend since the convention when Hillary was winning all of these states (many by 6% to 9%) and she had 389 electoral votes has been ever downward in the polls in every one of these competitive states. If that trend continues for much longer her lead will be in jeopardy. For instance if Trump overcomes her lead in Colorado and New Hampshire, her electoral vote total drops to 275 and she can't afford to lose even one more state.

So how you see this race depends a lot on whether you see the glass half empty or half full because I could make many of the same arguments the author is making. However this is where we disagree - he wrote:

Thus, I cannot see a “path” to a Trump victory. That hardly means it cannot happen – it can. Various services currently have her odds of winning in the 60-75% range, based on their mathematically-generated formulas. Statistically, that is probably about right. But I think, intuitively, that a better number, frankly, begins with a “9.”

Unfortunately, I do see a path for a Trump path - it's the debates. This is the most unpredictable encounter between two Presidential candidates in my memory and that goes back a long time. As usual, many of the voters haven't been paying close attention and the debates could sway their votes. Usually debates don't affect the polls much because the candidates are evenly matched and very well briefed as to what to expect.

This year with Trump being the very wild card, practically no one knows what to expect. You know that Hillary will be well prepared and very knowledgeable of the issues. But Trump is the master of the sound bytes and he can tell so many semi-believable lies in one minute that he defies on the spot fact checking. Will the moderators put up with that crap and not interrupt him or will they jump in and correct him on on the spot before he can tell another lie. A lot depends on moderators performance. a decisive victory by one candidate or the other could affect the preference enough vote move the pendulum in very close election like this one.

Look, given the current state of the race I think Hillary will win. And frankly I have a hard time believing that the American people will be taken by a fraud like Trump.

[tgards79]

12. You seem to be agreeing with BTRTN, not disagreeing.

Of course Hillary can lose. But when you put all the factors together -- the current state of the race, the odds of a Clinton rebound (that this is a low point), the money, the resources, Trump's volatility, his insane record which will come under ever-closer scrutiny, the fact that he has to win states he has NEVER lead in....the odds reduce dramatically. Down to less than 10%.

[CajunBlazer]

13. The difference is BTRTN is saying "Hillary will win"

Then there is some hedging.

What I am saying is that if the election today, there is 60% chance Hillary will win, 3 out of 5 times - so she would probably win. And she certainly has an edge going forward. However, the trends are alarming. Right now this race is too close and there are too many unknowns to have any kind of certainty about anything. I view the article as more of a wish than a prediction. You are free to view it any way you please. If it makes you less nervous, cool.

[tgards79]

16. It is a logical argument

Meaning each piece of evidence builds the odds. If Hillary is up today by 2 points and by 50 electoral votes, the odds favor her just like the odds are with a horse with a two length lead on the backstretch. Then you overlay the other factors and the real probability is much higher -- the odds of Trump blowing up again, the money, the organization...much, much higher than 60 percent. This is mot about emotion or feeling better, it is about cumulative probabilities.

[CajunBlazer]

17. I guess that make sense if you ignore the fact....

....that Trump "blew up" more times than I can count as the was steadily gaining on Hillary in the polls since the Democratic Convention. I think you are giving too much credit to the far too many American voters.

[CajunBlazer]

6. I didn't say I thought Trump will win

Only that his chances of winning have been increasing steady since the Democratic Convention and Hillary's have been steadily decreasing.

What the author sees as "Trump is at a high, Hillary at a low, and she is still ahead", others see a trend that could continue.

Regardless, this election cycle is at a turning point and I see three major factors which could affect the outcome:

1) Hillary has more funding as big contributors have been hesitant to invest in Trump given the campaign he has waged. Hillary has a much better ground game, especially in swing states.

2) Usually as elections get closer, people who early on say they will vote for 3rd party candidates began to see the futility of that course of action and come back to one of the major party candidates. Will that happen this time? Probably, but to what extent and which candidate will benefit is hard to predict. I suspect it will vary from state to state.

3) The debates - if Hillary were much further ahead, I would be less concerned. I am sure that Hillary will be very well prepared, but when someone lies as often as Trump does, he is difficult to manage. It like a team that plays hands on defense in basketball on the theory that the refs can't call every foul committed. In those games the refs have to call enough fouls to keep the game fair. Following that analogy the moderator in the debates has to be on his/her game and call out Trump on his lies. If the moderator doesn't keep in check Hillary will certainly challenge his lies, but with much of the audience across the nation that hasn't been paying close attention, it will be one candidates word against the other. I really don't know who will win at that game.

In an election this close any and all of these three factors can tip the race to one candidate or the other. We must do everything possible to GOTV.

[vadermike]

3. im not

happy about Trump having a 2 in 5 chance.. it is what it is.. what else can we do but GOTV donate etc???

[CajunBlazer]

7. It is all we can do personally so it will have to be good enough

[reggieandlee]

10. If you are worried about Hillary's odds on the election, read this...

Thorough, disciplined, logical, comprehensive. Read this and get a good night's sleep.

[Coyotl]

14. Because Trump is a criminal AND she will still be breathing. Destiny!

We have a list, a growing list, of Trump's crimes. He is toast, quite simply, and cannot possibly get elected given who he is.

We need a list of Trump's known crimes.

All Hillary has to do is keep breathing

[oasis]

15. I'm still seeing a landslide ahead. My only concern is for the capture of

adequate senate seats.