2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida
The end date for this poll is Sept 14. HIllary was still off on her sick days. --and of course we have had the bomb crap since this poll was taken.
Mark Murray Retweeted
Nate Cohn ?@Nate_Cohn 5h5 hours ago Washington, DC
Clinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/19/upshot/florida-poll-clinton-trump.html?_r=1
White Voters Keep Trumps
Hopes Alive in Must-Win Florida
By NATE COHN SEPT. 19, 2016
New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll
Clinton
41%
Trump
40%
Poll of 867 likely voters, Sept. 10-14, 2016
Donald J. Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances.
But a new poll, by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College, suggests that Mr. Trump is keeping his hopes alive in Florida, the largest and most diverse of the crucial battleground states. The reason: White voters favor him by a large margin.
Mrs. Clinton leads by a single point, 41 to 40 percent, among likely voters in a four-way race that includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. The race is tied in the head-to-head race, 43-43.
The poll, the first of its kind by The Upshot, was based on voter records that allow unusually detailed analysis of the electorate.
It indicates that Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton by 51 percent to 30 percent among white voters and that includes all white voters, not just those without a college education who have been so vital to his campaign. Shes winning white voters registered as Democrats by only 63 percent to 17 percent.......................
As has been expected,..............
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Nate Silver has corrected this poll for bias and is using the result of Trump leading by one and he is giving it a very high weight when combining it with other Florida polls.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)vadermike
(1,415 posts)Ok so FL is gone now too? From this one poll I don't think so
JCMach1
(27,559 posts)Of course Obama had one of the best GOTV efforts Florida has ever seen.
It's really simply, if Dems stay home (like in the off year Gov. races, think Rick Scott), we lose. If we show in the same numbers as in 2016, we will safely win by 1-4%.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)according to the latest polls.