Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

riversedge

(70,242 posts)
Mon Sep 19, 2016, 03:35 PM Sep 2016

Clinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida

The end date for this poll is Sept 14. HIllary was still off on her sick days. --and of course we have had the bomb crap since this poll was taken.


Mark Murray Retweeted
Nate Cohn ?@Nate_Cohn 5h5 hours ago Washington, DC

Clinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/19/upshot/florida-poll-clinton-trump.html?_r=1



White Voters Keep Trump’s
Hopes Alive in Must-Win Florida

By NATE COHN SEPT. 19, 2016

New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll
Clinton
41%
Trump
40%
Poll of 867 likely voters, Sept. 10-14, 2016

Donald J. Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances.

But a new poll, by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College, suggests that Mr. Trump is keeping his hopes alive in Florida, the largest and most diverse of the crucial battleground states. The reason: White voters favor him by a large margin.

Mrs. Clinton leads by a single point, 41 to 40 percent, among likely voters in a four-way race that includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. The race is tied in the head-to-head race, 43-43.

The poll, the first of its kind by The Upshot, was based on voter records that allow unusually detailed analysis of the electorate.

It indicates that Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton by 51 percent to 30 percent among white voters – and that includes all white voters, not just those without a college education who have been so vital to his campaign. She’s winning white voters registered as Democrats by only 63 percent to 17 percent.......................

As has been expected,..............





6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Clinton has a 1 point lead, 41-40, in the first NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of Florida (Original Post) riversedge Sep 2016 OP
This has been posted four times here already alcibiades_mystery Sep 2016 #1
This poll is NOT GOOD NEWS!!! CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #2
Florida is tied and winner will take like by less than 100k votes MyNameIsKhan Sep 2016 #6
?? vadermike Sep 2016 #3
about where Obama was in 2016, some polls even had him down... JCMach1 Sep 2016 #4
It's interesting that HRC is getting a higher % in GA than in FL book_worm Sep 2016 #5

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
2. This poll is NOT GOOD NEWS!!!
Mon Sep 19, 2016, 03:41 PM
Sep 2016

Nate Silver has corrected this poll for bias and is using the result of Trump leading by one and he is giving it a very high weight when combining it with other Florida polls.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

JCMach1

(27,559 posts)
4. about where Obama was in 2016, some polls even had him down...
Mon Sep 19, 2016, 04:12 PM
Sep 2016

Of course Obama had one of the best GOTV efforts Florida has ever seen.

It's really simply, if Dems stay home (like in the off year Gov. races, think Rick Scott), we lose. If we show in the same numbers as in 2016, we will safely win by 1-4%.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Clinton has a 1 point lea...