Polls are lagging indicators (REDUX)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

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Patrick Murray
?@PollsterPatrick
While forecast models/crystal balls just catching up with Clinton's bad week, sense things have started shifting again...

[vadermike]

1. More

Good HRC polls coming ?

[democrattotheend]

2. They were shifting back toward her

But after Saturday's events, I am afraid of them shifting back the other way.

[leebaba1992]

10. well

considering it didn't when the events in Florida occurred. And also this event was pretty much handled as good as one can hope, I don't think he'll benefit much

[democrattotheend]

15. Plus the fact that he is barely hiding his giddiness about it

I am hoping that ends up backfiring. And it is encouraging that some polls before Saturday actually showed Hillary leading on whom voters trust to handle terrorism.

But I am afraid that the more of these attacks, the less people are going to find Trump's Muslim ban proposal offensive. I also think the polls could be underestimating his support because of a sort of reverse Bradley effect - people are embarrassed to admit they are voting for a racist.

[vadermike]

3. Well

We are gonna lose this election cause of these attacks ? Well then let's just give up now and hide under a blanket I don't think it's that black and white but I guess ewe will see

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The miscreant is in custody. He was apprehended quickly. There were no fatalities.

No bump from from the grisly for Trump...

He didn't even get a bump from the Pulse Nightclub Massacre which was horrific.

[Democat]

8. Check post history

Then hit alert.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

[RAFisher]

6. Why? Polling shows voters trust Clinton more than Trump with terrorism.

When people get hurt Trump just wants to take credit for it for some fucked up reason.

[vadermike]

9. Agree

So I don't know why people go crazy About this with trump He didn't gain from Orlando and polling does show her ahead on the issue

[Democat]

7. You post that Democrats are going to lose all of the time

I can't count the number of times I've reported on your attempts to undermine Democratic confidence.

[RAFisher]

5. The Georgia poll showed no gains by Trump. Looks as if Clinton's bad week never happened.

That's probably what he's referring to. He might be seeing other soon to be released Monmouth polls that have similar trends.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Clinton -3 in GA is a terrific result. Obama lost GA by 8 and won nationally by 4.

[geek tragedy]

14. I think we're seeing some southern states

trending blue and some Midwestern/Rust Belt states trending red.

The question is whether we can (a) pick up states like North Carolina and (b) limit the bleeding in states like Iowa and Ohio.

[yardwork]

16. I've thought that might happen.

The foundation of Trump's appeal is racism and xenophobia. The rust belt is susceptible to that. Meanwhile, African Americans are incredibly motivated to vote against Trump, which combined with the New South's transplants from the NE, potentially turns some southern states blue.

In other words, Trump could win Ohio but lose Georgia and North Carolina.

[geek tragedy]

17. the timing isn't great though--Georgia and Arizona aren't quite yet close enough

to swing due to these trends, but Nevada and Ohio is, and it looks like Iowa already has swung back into the Republican fold (time to strip their first in the country primary status--our nominee should not be picked by ground zero for white nationalism).

[yardwork]

19. Certainly agree about Iowa. And it's time to replace caucuses with voting.

Caucuses are inherently elitist and undemocratic. Most of us don't have the time or patience to sit around all night arguing while eating cookies. I want to leave work, vote and go home.

[Doctor Jack]

13. I like all of the speculation on what he meant even though he already clarifed

On his twitter he had a follow saying that clinton is gaining

[geek tragedy]

18. his follow wasn't very encouraging.

His follow up Tweet stated "Prelim suggests not quite as bad for HRC as last week. Also underlines volatility."

"Not quite as bad" is not something to celebrate.