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2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts) Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:32 PM Sep 2016

0

Patrick Murray of Monmouth University's polling unit drops some pro HRC hints

@Davidzteich @ThePlumLineGS In field with multiple polls. Prelim suggests not quite as bad for HRC as last week. Also, underlines volatility

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825

17 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Patrick Murray of Monmouth University's polling unit drops some pro HRC hints (Original Post) Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 OP

When does this get released? Johnny2X2X Sep 2016 #1

Why do we "need to see it soon"? Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #3

If she's only losing Georgia by 3, she is likely in good shape nationally bluestateguy Sep 2016 #2

yep. Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #4

Georgia Voter here piechartking Sep 2016 #7

Is anyone else kinda suspicious over the gas prices and shortages in Atlanta and Georgia? ! abetterkid Sep 2016 #10

"not quite as bad for HRC as last week" geek tragedy Sep 2016 #5

He's a statistician Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #6

I think we can agree he's being rather cryptic. geek tragedy Sep 2016 #9

Hardly encouraging, especially since they don't factor in the events of this weekend democrattotheend Sep 2016 #8

Nah I'm encouraged Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #11

See below Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #13

It's time to remind Americans Isis wants us to have volatile leadership to hasten the end times. bettyellen Sep 2016 #14

More Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #12

Don't triron Sep 2016 #15

Crystal ball is a reference to Larry Sabato Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #16

Was triron Sep 2016 #17

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

1. When does this get released?

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:34 PM

Sep 2016

I think we're about to see a bump for HRC, but we need to see it soon.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

3. Why do we "need to see it soon"?

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:38 PM

Sep 2016

I don't believe in observer effects in opinion polling.

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)

2. If she's only losing Georgia by 3, she is likely in good shape nationally

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:35 PM

Sep 2016

And with a good ground game in that state she could pull even.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

4. yep.

Reply to bluestateguy (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:39 PM

Sep 2016

piechartking

(617 posts)

7. Georgia Voter here

Reply to bluestateguy (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:57 PM

Sep 2016

and let me tell you, I cannot WAIT until Georgia is Blue.

abetterkid

(47 posts)

10. Is anyone else kinda suspicious over the gas prices and shortages in Atlanta and Georgia? !

Reply to piechartking (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:24 PM

Sep 2016

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

5. "not quite as bad for HRC as last week"

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:48 PM

Sep 2016

:/

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

6. He's a statistician

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 01:53 PM

Sep 2016

understatement is our M.O.

read the entire tweet flow.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

9. I think we can agree he's being rather cryptic.

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:14 PM

Sep 2016

"not quite as bad" could be up by 3-4 nationally, or it could mean losing Ohio and Iowa by 3-5 instead of 4-6.

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)

8. Hardly encouraging, especially since they don't factor in the events of this weekend

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:08 PM

Sep 2016

As much as we think Trump is irresponsible and reckless, I think his forceful reaction will help him, not hurt him. I am more worried now than ever about the election.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

11. Nah I'm encouraged

Reply to democrattotheend (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:35 PM

Sep 2016

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

13. See below

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:42 PM

Sep 2016

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)

14. It's time to remind Americans Isis wants us to have volatile leadership to hasten the end times.

Reply to democrattotheend (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:44 PM

Sep 2016

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

12. More

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:42 PM

Sep 2016

While forecast models/crystal balls just catching up with Clinton's bad week, sense things have started shifting again

https://twitter.com/pollsterpatrick/status/777917928264073216

triron

(22,007 posts)

15. Don't

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:46 PM

Sep 2016

know about crystal balls but Sam Wang has HRC back at 88% (Bayesian).
http://election.princeton.edu/

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

16. Crystal ball is a reference to Larry Sabato

Reply to triron (Reply #15)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:49 PM

Sep 2016

Big fan of Sam Wang. Parsimonious and powerful model.

triron

(22,007 posts)

17. Was

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #16)

Mon Sep 19, 2016, 02:53 PM

Sep 2016

being facetious. I have some acquaintance with Sabato; he is good at predictions as well.

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