***UPSHOT/Siena FL Poll Clinton 41, Trump 40 (4-way)***

[piechartking]

2-way

Clinton 43
Trump 43


GOTV!

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/19/upshot/florida-poll-clinton-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

[underpants]

1. Still waiting for tomorrow to see where we are at

We'll see if she survived the stumble. Good news though. Ohio is a coin flip, Florida is probably hers anyway. Trump HAS to win Pennsylvania.

[Democat]

2. She definitely survived the stumble, but now it's time to work

And hope that Trump's big stumble will come closer to voting day.

[molova]

5. Worth noting: Poll conducted before birther-gate

I don't know why they didn't extend the polling or suspend it in light of Birther-gate, which resulted in terrible news for Trump, as he lied again and again about his involvement in the Birther movement.

[underpants]

10. Yes but Tuesday's polls will reflect the events of last weekend

after the dust has settled. How bad was the stumble? The birther thing is diluted outside of junkies like ourselves but it will have an effect especially in the degreed voters which Trump is not doing very well with.

The explosions and bombs found over the weekend will probably be spun as his advantage just because he's made "law and order" a big deal. It usually is the Repubs issue due to their history/rhetoric of being tough on crime.

Again we'll see.

[Warren DeMontague]

7. Unless the polls I've been reading are way off, he's got serious problems in PA.

So that's good.

[underpants]

9. The thing the polling can't show is organization.

She has organization everywhere, he has none or nada as some people say. Identifying who to target (as annoying as that can be) and who to recruit to volunteer and then putting them together can't be measured in a poll. That's the great *ahem* trump card for her. Those are 1-2 points on Election Day.

But then, we'll see. I've never seen a campaign like his where he has no ground game and has been allowed to phone in interviews to this extent. Oh and his wife is nowhere to be seen.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. We win a tie.

Clinton's worst week plus an actual ground game?

Not worried

[Warren DeMontague]

6. We can conceivably lose FL, Trump can't.

If we win it, though, that's even better.

[molova]

4. NYT can never come up with a headline favorable to Clinton

Unbelievable.
They could have said, "Black voters keep Trump in check, or something similar.
But hey, it's the New York Times.

[book_worm]

8. FL is close just as it was in 2012 when Obama won by 75,000 out of 8.5 million

GOTV--early voting HRC has more campaign offices and thus more volunteers to help bank those early votes.

[JRLeft]

11. Terrorism may help Trump too. Not in NYC , but swing states where people are scared.

[RAFisher]

12. Seems like a good poll. Clinton winning Florida would be nail in the coffin for Trump.

Bad week. We are still trying to see how fast Clinton will rise in the polls. Debates should help Clinton. Florida is all going depend on GOTV.

[geek tragedy]

13. In the past Florida has been more Republican than the rest of the country,

though that may be changing now that the Republican party has become definitively the party of uneducated white people, which would shift states like NC into the "more Democratic" column with states like Iowa and Nevada going into the "more Republican" column.

[oasis]

14. I can't wait for the polls after the debate smackdown.

[bluestateguy]

15. Better than I was expecting

nt