For those panicking about Nate Silver splash some water on your face

[Monk06]

Here are the charts from 538 from 2012 and 2016 (as of eight hours ago)

2012
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/



Take note of when Obama/Romney were closest vs Clinton/Trump now

Virtually identical at 63.3/36.7 (2012) Obama/Romney vs 59.8/40.1 (2016) Clinton/Trump

Also the tightening occurred about the same time, first week of Oct for Obama/Romney vs September 19

Note also that Obama started pulling away from Romney after the first week of Oct In other words after the first debate

Expect the same to happen if Clinton wins the debate next week and subsequently


Nate Silver has only been wrong in one state in two elections so has a big reputation to lose if he is wrong this time

I expect the breakout to occur in the about two or three days after the first debate on Sept 28/29 once the pundit fog has cleared and the latest post debate polls show up in numbers

However Clinton has to stay steady, keep bating Trump on the stump and ace that first debate

[vadermike]

1. Recovery

May already start happening even before first debate Solid PA poll right now plus 8 for us

[Monk06]

4. Saw that I am not one of the nervous neliies They thought they had her with the fainting spell

but nobody is going to hold a bout of pnuemonia against her Pnuemonia is actually quite common I have had it twice my wife once

Not exactly a disqualifying disability

[MFM008]

2. PA

Is this year's Florida.
Holding PA and VA are vital.

[Monk06]

5. My post is about those numbers and I quoted both 2012 and 2016 to date Did you even get the point

I was making?

I have to wonder why you just posted the graphic from the link I provided without commenting on my argument

What point are you trying to make?