An honest question about the polls since Trumplestiltskin went off the rails yesterday

[Farmgirl1961]

I did notice just the slightest uptickeat Nate Silver 538 for Hillary (still way too low for my comfort zone), and a slight downward tick on Daily Kos (at 70% today -- which is much higher than 538). I haven't checked Princeton Election Consortium and frankly I'm not going poll chasing today.

But -- I am honestly wondering if folks believe that what down yesterday with Trump and with the media finally excoriating him (and with Michelle stumping for Hillary in NC) whether there's an expectation that the Hillary bashing is done - for now - and new polling will reflect (some -- hopefully a lot) disgust with Trump. I sure hope so.

Thoughts this Saturday morning?

[underpants]

1. Wait until Tuesday

That's when we will get a real look at the effects of the health episode and now this. My2 cents.

[Democat]

2. LA Times tracking poll shows Hillary up, Trump down starting on 09/16

We'll know much more in a few days, but it looks like the medical issue was the problem and it's getting further away.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. It usually takes a few days before polls show the effects

of some occurrence. We should see something more definite by Monday or Tuesday.

[OhZone]

4. Prediction markets have her up a point or two.

They sometimes are faster than polls, which can lag.

[Grammy23]

5. My guess and my hope is that we will begin to see a reversal

In Hillary's downward trend starting this week. We know the slide began after her illness and the video of her getting in the van was played over and over, emphasizing that she was not well. The delay in getting her pneumonia diagnosis to the public was another factor.

Her return to the trail showed a stronger Hillary who seemed in fine form. The addition of the Obamas and other surrogates helped, too. Then tRump's terrible end to this week should remind people again of what a vile, disgusting man he is. I would be surprised if there is NOT a sharp turn around in the trend lines for Hillary. Still have my fingers crossed and wearing my rabbit's foot good luck charm.

[Rocknrule]

6. Don't you mean "Trumplethinskin"?

[Farmgirl1961]

7. Oh yes, I do -- thanks for the correction

n/t

[jodymarie aimee]

8. Has anyone ever called you for a poll

In the last 16 months nobody has polled me. Ditto for my friends.

[Farmgirl1961]

10. Nope

n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Polls are lagging indicators.

Follow the betting markets:

https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html


http://predictwise.com/

[Farmgirl1961]

11. Thanks

I see that Nate Silver 538 once again has a slight downward tick from several hours ago. I'm curious to know the lag time from when polls are taken and when they are posted (i.e., hours?). I do find it quite odd that the news coverage of tRump's fiasco yesterday has been 100% negative, yet there's no indication that people have responded to it negatively. Yes, it may be too early, but what I wonder about is whether the media's negative coverage (positive - realistic - finally showing who this madman is) may not impact those in the public that are leaning Trump.

In the meantime, I'll go back to my fundraising yard sale and read all the fun DU postings!