Polls are lagging indicators. Better to follow the betting markets.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Rightly or wrongly and I believe wrongly but my opinion is irrelevant to the matter , the opinions of what the voters say is what ultimately matters, Hillary took a hit in the polls over her health scare and Deplorables comment. However now she is coming back.

Most of the scary polls were taken from last Friday to Wednesday which was Hillary's nadir. She will now start moving up in the polls again as she gets credit for working through her illness and Trump will now start sinking in the polls as a result of his clumsy remarks about birtherism and his call to his deplorable minions to harm Hillary Clinton.


Here are two nice links to betting markets:


https://electionbettingodds.com/


There has been a 4.2% shift to HRC in 24 hours.

Here is another one:


http://predictwise.com/

[MoonRiver]

1. DSB, thank you!

We need to tamp down the hysteria. Hillary's got this!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. We need to tamp down the hysteria. It destroys esprit de corps.

I think some of it is genuine, some of it is is a function of being misinformed, and some of it is designed to create hysteria, i.e., concern trolling...

I didn't want to pile on during the Deplorables and health scare brouhaha, but I knew Hillary would take a hit in the polls over it. I also was confident it would be temporary.

Any way, the jury is still out on her Deplorables comment. Maybe in the long run it will help her.

As to the state of the race whenever there is competition there are winners and losers. Few competitions are a lock. What we can say with certainty is that is more likely than not Hillary will win. To ascertain how much more likely than not one has to look at the odds.

[Lucky Luciano]

3. I like watching USDMXN forex rates.

That is a much more liquid indicator. If that fx pair spikes higher then bad news for Hillary assuming the spike higher was not due to a genuine economic shock unrelated to our election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I can see a nexus between two markets which wouldn't seem to be connected on its face.

What are they saying?

BTW, Mark Cuban told that stooge Neil Cavuto he would take a 100% defensive position if it looked like Trump was going to win.

[jtuck004]

13. " a 100% defensive position" A bullet proof vest? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. 100% hedge.

[jtuck004]

18. Oh good. Bring a stockbroker to a gunfight. I understand what the the guy from stock tank is saying,

but the Mean Man is talking about real bullets, not positioning his assets. With such an opponent how thick and strong your door is might become more important in assessing your defensive position than being long medical supplies and sugar.

Besides, it won't be the little hands with the weapons. It will be one of those millions of pairs of eyes, and arms, and legs that work for him. That's why his comments are more dangerous than anyone is giving him credit for.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Cuban is one of the good guys this election cycle

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=mark+cuban

[jtuck004]

25. He takes money from other people's labor. Is part of the problem, even with a smirk on

his face.

I've never seen him add anything of value.

ymmv.

[Lucky Luciano]

19. Day to day movements are no biggie.

But if $MXN spikes to 22-23...that would be a trump effect. Their central bank does intervene from time to time by trading fx swaps to protect their currency...but trump would overwhelm that.

[yallerdawg]

5. CNN Political Prediction Market

Started last Friday at 72%.

CNN's Political Prediction Market is an online game administered by the company Pivit, which functions like an online market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of the election. It is not to be confused with polls from real voters.

Clinton's odds of winning the presidency fell from 70% to 65% late Sunday morning upon abruptly leaving a September 11 memorial event after feeling "overheated," according to her campaign.

Video later revealed Clinton's wobbly exit out of the event at Ground Zero and her campaign announced Sunday evening that the Democratic nominee is battling pneumonia.

Clinton's numbers dropped to 62% by Sunday night and fell further to 58% Monday afternoon, as the Trump campaign slammed her for her "deplorables" comment.

Meanwhile, Trump's odds of winning the presidency jumped from 28% on Friday to 42% on Monday.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-health-deplorables-pivit/index.html

[SunSeeker]

6. Plus, the press has finally revolted against Trump, thanks to his "press conference" scam yesterday.

I mean, when Trump has lost Major Garrett...it's over.

[Fast Walker 52]

7. seriously-- what a freaking scam. And it's about time they wised up.

Let's hope this is the REAL beginning of the end for Don the Con, even though sadly, no matter what, he will get 40% of the vote.

[Demsrule86]

8. Thank you! nt

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

9. People probably betting Trump shot himself in the foot yesterday

Unfortunately, the voters seem impervious to this guy's attempts to disqualify himself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I don't want to leave the impression I believe Trump can't win.

I just believe it is much more likely than not he doesn't. That is what the betting markets and voter predicted winner surveys are showing.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

11. I'm still confident Hillary will win

But the stupidity is getting to me lately.

[Auggie]

12. K&R

[scheming daemons]

15. Last week was "peak Trump"

He'll be behind from here through the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. He's sank another percent or so in the last hour.

Bettors are looking at the hammering he is getting in the news over his ham handed handling of the birtherism question and his call to his deplorable minions to harm Hillary just as Hillary got hammered for her health scare.

I don't agree with John Podhoretz but I agree with his assessment that all HRC needs to do to wrap this thing up is not cough, not fall down, and not have any more damning revelations.

[Cracklin Charlie]

16. 4.2%?

Is this a big shift?

Seems like a big change for a 24 hour cycle.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Now it's 4.5. It is an aggregate of many betting markets. Follow the money.

The site updates every five minutes.


Seems like a big shift to me.

[ananda]

22. It's the Senate I'm worried about!

And this is a very legitimate worry.

Dems need to fight those senate races with
money and get out the vote.

And in too many cases, they're not.

[SCVDem]

23. I consider 'Deplorables' to be an issue.

A tough, difficult issue Hillary was not afraid to take on. The facts were there and she even prefaced the statement saying it might not be completely accurate.

It needed to be said!

also

I am enjoying Lawrence spending so much time on tRumps lies. He is on a mission.

[rtracey]

24. polls

The polls are terrible. CNN ran a poll this week that didnt include voters aged 18-30? what? really thats a good sampling.... Also, polls still use land lines and crappy websites.....when was the last time an 18-30 year old used a fucking land line? what at work?

[nolabear]

26. Excellent point! These people don't play.

The house always plays in its own favor.

[MFM008]

27. Good to see

Before our cozy hobbit hole turns into Jones Town....