Reuters 50 state poll: They predict, with a high degree of confidence, Trump wins... Vermont

[Godhumor]

Seriously.

http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

You'll notice a little red band of three blocks in the NE. Click on those, and right there, high confidence for Trump.

Think maybe Bernie might have something to say about that prediction?

[Stallion]

1. New Mexico Too

this is do-do

but they do have Clinton +5 nationwide

[triron]

10. Probably

but I live in Albuquerque and the local newspaper (Albuquerque Journal) has been brutal to Secretary Clinton calling her a liar over the email investigation while she was Secretary of State. I might add they are Republican owned.

[Stallion]

11. Only 141 Likely New Mexicans Polled

nm

[triron]

13. Thanks

too small to be remotely accurate. I have written several pro-hrc letters to the editor; none of them printed. By the way my letters were not simply opinion pieces I backed them up with evidence and counter examples.

[vadermike]

2. How good are

These polls ? Geez us how could she be ahead 5 nationally but losing NE states and NM?? Please tell me there is something wrong with these polls?

[Godhumor]

3. ... What do you think? N/t

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

8. Hillary's widest margin of victory in NE will be Vermont

Mark it down.

[pnwmom]

4. And they base it on some pretty unlikely if not bizarre turnout estimates.

In this scenario: Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots.

[AmericanMan1958]

5. Nate Silvers

Has Hillary with a 95% chance of winning Vermont
Reuter's scenario must be way out of bounds.
Nate is playing it tight on his projection.
Can't see him be that much off.

[LenaBaby61]

6. Reuters 50 state poll: They predict, with a high degree of confidence, Trump wins... Vermont.

[Divine Discontent]

7. and IMHO no polling really matters (as long as it's not a +10) until the weekend before

the election - in this election!

Orange Hitler, as Maher called him, is prone to saying such monstrously obnoxious things that who knows which one of them will swing 1 or 2 million people across the US away to Hillary and it helps her carry a 10-29 EV state by a half point...

As long as a state doesn't go a huge amount up and is kept in single digits, it's in play with big mouth...

My guess... (I think Ohio is the ultimate tossup, could fall either way. I'd go there 15 times if I was her or Obama)

[MFM008]

9. Lol

Thanks for the laugh. Next up California.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. They give NC to Hillary but have PA "Too Close to Call"

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

14. Vermont can be weird...

I lived there for a decade. For many years it was the only place you could carry concealed without a permit to your civil union. Vermonters are very liberal about social issues, like conservation while getting to hunt and snowmobile. Some are extremely conservative and some are extremely liberal. There could be considerable third party support on both sides there and New Hampshire. Both states can surprise everyone and that should always be kept in mind.