"Rethinking 'Shellshocked' Romney" by David Jarman for Daily Kos

[applegrove]

Rethinking 'Shellshocked' Romney

by David Jarman for Daily Kos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1160010/-Rethinking-shellshocked-Romney

"SNIP...........................................

This was a popular story in the liberal blogosphere, if only for its schadenfreude-tastic nature, but also because it seems to confirm the most fundamental stereotypes about Republicans: they believe their own B.S.; they live in a closed ideological bubble; they're so anti-science it extends to all forms of being anti-evidence, including the polling concerning the very thing they're trying to win.

However, something doesn't smell right about the story: even with their attempts to unskew their own polling, the Romney camp had to have known they had no better than a bank-shot chance of winning. Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall shared some of my skepticism when he discussed the article, though he didn't connect the final dot. His contention:

Just too ridiculous. I can maybe believe that the Romney camp thought they had a fighting chance in Ohio — after all the final result was pretty close. I simply cannot believe that they thought they were in such a strong position that they were going to try for a decisive electoral college win.

What's the final dot? The fact that we got a look under the hood at the Romney camp's pre-election internals, if ever so briefly. Remember the leaked Romney internals on Monday afternoon before the election? To start out, set aside the lack of specificity of the internals (no topline numbers, just vague descriptions of the margin in some states), and the unusual place it was leaked to (the Daily Mail, one of the UK's right-wing scandal sheets, though not a Rupert Murdoch property); also, forget for a moment that leaked internals are leaked selectively and leaked for a reason, and often reflect an absolute best-case scenario rather than the most likely state of play for a race.


..........................................SNIP"

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. I agree with this assessment...the shellshocked narrative doesn't sit right with me

And it also comes directly out of the Romney camp, which we know is loaded to the gills with bullshit.

Not sure they nailed the reason WHY Romney's people invented this shellshocked business, but I agree that it is invented.

No way Romney and his consultants were this out of touch.

[TwilightGardener]

3. Maybe it's to get the big angry donors off his back. They feel they were

misled about his chances, from what I've read. If he's just stunned--SHELLSHOCKED--about his loss, then his campaign wasn't feeding anybody bullshit, they were true believers and just got it wrong.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Willard knew he was toast

and then everything turned to a Harvest operation. they had to separate campaign funds for their fat cats before calling it quits. Don't doubt for a single minute,Willard was in this for a big payday. If one doubts,I think we will see evidence shortly.

[UCmeNdc]

4. This is an interesting article

Mitt Romney was a con job. Why not con the super rich?

[Fawke Em]

19. Well, he did spend an awful lot of money advertising on Clear Channel

in states he was certainly going to win.

And, Clear Channel is a Bain holding.

There is some evidence he used the money of the super rich to prop up his own investments.

[ffr]

5. ORCA was their Wallstreet Derivative debacle

A money pit that made those who sold it a mint, leaving those who relied on it holding the bag. A Republican scam against their own.

These stories are only going to get worse for him as time goes by.

[cthulu2016]

6. IMO, Mister Jarman makes a fundamental error in this piece

He believes unreliable information he wants to believe and disregards unreliable information he doesn't care to believe.

Why does he believe that the leaked internal polling story is reliable enough to wrap tinfoil around?

And why does he assume that the Romney camp's subsequent denial of the leak means that they were saying the real numbers were much worse? They would hardly have felt honor bound to correct the record so we would know that their real numbers were terrible.


This looks to be case #386,674 of falling into the trap of thinking that the enemy is very smart despite all the evidence to the contrary. Everyone is a Machiavellian mastermind when convenient for the conspiracy, despite the fact, and it is a fact, that everyone and everything associated with the Romney campaign showed ample evidence of idiocy and delusion. Every day.

The simplest explanation is that these known delusional idiots were smoking their own electoral dope. That may be incorrect, but it remains the likeliest explanation.

(As one counter piece of evidence... the "I agree with Obama" debate did not appear to the the strategy of people who thought they were behind.)

[Marsala]

13. Yeah, I can't believe that the campaign would paint themselves as clueless idiots if it wasn't true

Donors expect to get spun, and losing campaigns always pretend that they're not losing.

[Justice]

7. this makes a good deal of sense because

I read that Romney didn't make the pivot to the center earlier because he needed money, and so only pivoted to the center at the debates. Remember hearing that the right would support him no matter what he said because he jumped in the polls after the first debate? The move was highly calculated.

I believe his team kept the donors in the dark, making them believe he thought he was winning, despite the polls, because he needed the money to keep flowing. Saving he was shellshocked allows him to continue the falsehood he thought he was winning/would win.

[Mme. Defarge]

8. So, how would

the plans for a victory fireworks display and the Romney/Ryan administration transition website fit into this charade?

[LeftofObama]

12. Excellent Point! n/t

[On the Road]

9. I Understand This Argument

but when Romney had to give his concession speech, he didn't look like someone who knew he was going to lose.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. That's true...neither did Ann, Janna, nor Ryan himself look like they expected it

Janna Ryan looked absolutely beside herself, and Ann Romney looked stunned. They can't all be actors of that caliber.

[Bad Thoughts]

15. Why was the campaign already spinning reasons for loss in last week (like Sandy)?

Romney would have had to have been willfully ignorant not to know that he could lose, even if he believed that he would win. He (and his campaign) had confronted a whole month (September) in which he was painted as a loser. His surrogates were being pounded on TV. Looking at RV/LV numbers, they should have known that Obama had a better potential to win if he could move voters. And Romney himself had known what it meant to lose elections, running for office in the past and facing difficulties over his public persona.

Perhaps more damning: the campaign was already looking for reasons to explain the loss. They focused on Sandy in the last week, the President's image responding to the catastrophe, and Cristie's betrayal.

I think that this is a new version of a popular Republican game: blame the messenger, not the message. Admitting there is a republican bubble, they claim that the campaign knew only the bubble. The campaign was in the bubble; the donors were in the bubble; how could we see what was happening if everyone was in the bubble.

I'm waiting for some GOPer to tell the truth: they went too extreme and couldn't bring the popular with them.

[BlueMTexpat]

10. Just MO, but I believe that this article ignores

the very real belief (held by Romney and his most fervent supporters) that he was indeed the shining fulfillment of Mormon prophecy.

Never underestimate the power of religion to make people believe the unbelievable. Never. Ever.

[LiberalFighter]

16. You mean that he was going to fulfill the prophecy in spite of the numbers?

Out of nowhere a miracle will happen?

[BlueMTexpat]

20. I know that it doesn't make any logical sense to

anyone who is fact-based.

But it is what it is.

[TomCADem]

11. It Is Better To Say Romney Was Stupid, Rather Than RW Media Apparatus Lies

Also, it is one thing to blame Romney, but what about Karl Rove's meltdown when he simply insisted that the Ohio numbers must be wrong? It wasn't just Romney. I think their pollsters knew the truth, but the spinsters were lying.

[JCMach1]

17. Losing hurts even IF you know you are going to lose

when you put everything into it...

[lunatica]

18. Their cluelessness was obvious in their emotional reactions throughout

Up until the found out they lost they were insufferably smug without even a hint of embarrassment about his taxes, his lies, his wild weathervane swings, Ann's superior way of talking to "you people" and even to ordering the Republicans to stop picking on Mitt because "It's hard". They never showed even an iota of chagrin for being found out about the 47% comments or anything else. To me that indicates Romney was clueless about the reality of the situation.

And the biggie that's the frosting on the cake is when he didn't have a concession speech ready and Ann's hair was all done up for a party and that she and Ryans wife had been crying. Ann crying? Not unless she was devastated because her dream was thwarted. People like Ann Romney only cry for themselves and their loved ones. They don't cry for anyone else. And their tears are sincere because nothing is more sincere than self pity.

I put a lot of stock into how people react emotionally because they can certainly tell lies anytime. But crying in self pity? That's no lie.

[Donkees]

21. Adios, "idiot wind" Mitt!

Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your mouth
Blowing down the back roads headin' south
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth
You're an idiot, Mitt
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe


You hurt the ones that I love best
And cover up the truth with lies
One day you'll be in the ditch
Flies buzzin' around your eyes


Idiot wind, blowing like a circle around my skull
From the Grand Coulee Dam to the Capitol
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth
You're an idiot, Mitt
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe

--altered Dylan lyrics