Are you, as a data junkie, looking for the one statistic that will determine election's outcome?

[Bucky]

If so, then I've found it.

And what it means is, you personally can make a difference in this election. No, seriously, it's literally up to you.

This is my source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-lead-over-trump-in-new-poll-but-warning-signs-emerge/2016/09/10/800dee0c-76c8-11e6-b786-19d0cb1ed06c_story.html

Here's what it says:

Trump’s supporters report greater interest in the campaign and voting, which could factor into turnout. More than 6 in 10 registered voters who support Trump say they are following the campaign very closely, and 93 percent say they are absolutely certain to vote. By contrast, 45 percent of Clinton backers are paying close attention to the race, and 80 percent are certain to vote, while one-fifth say they will probably or are less likely to cast a ballot.

There are several swing states that will determine this election... Michigan, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada. Ha-ha on the Republicans that Florida & North Carolina are in play. But fuck the Democratic establishment that Ohio & Michigan are swing states. Nevada? That's just a simple demographics issue. Arizona and Georgia will soon follow suit.

But I digress. The important point here is that GOTV is THE story of the 2016 election. More Trump supporter are "highly motivated" to turn out to vote than Clinton supporters.

What does that mean for you, you personally? It means (and excuse for if I overemphasize the point... but...

[font size="6"]YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE[/font]

If the key variable in this almost-but-not-quite-tied political election between normal democracy and outright fascism is turn out, then literally every vote counts; and that means that every person who works on getting out the vote matters ten times more than the average citizen.

If you show up, you matter. You can change history at one of its critical fulcrum points. I'm not exaggerating. I mean this literally. As someone who's said over the last two election cycles "This is not the most important election of your lifetime... 2004 was the most important" because it would reject or ratify the notion that the USA was a either a democracy or an empire using the mask of democracy (and we lost that one, folks)...

As someone who's constantly nagged DU over being truly liberal rather than tribally leftish...

As someone who takes the historical view, that America is a good thing, a historical ideal, a beacon of democracy and human progress despite out imperfections...

As someone who showed up at the rallies and protests instead of just talking about a better world but puts his life into making it happen...

I implore you, put aside your worries and your ego and your doubts that it'll all work out for the better in the end. Be the difference this fall. Be the one who namelessly makes history. Be the one who turns out ten votes against regression and against the drift to oligarchy and who makes this country as liberal and open and progressive as it's willing to be.

Turnout is everything this year. Help get out the votes. [font size="4"]Shore the levee, stick your finger in the dyke, mount the parapets, and turn out the vote.[/font]

Be the one who makes a difference and find a way to help turn out the vote.

[FSogol]

1. K&R. GOTV, DU. n/t

[Bucky]

4. thank you

[Imperialism Inc.]

2. K&R

[okaawhatever]

3. +100 nt

[Democat]

5. GOTV will be the difference in this election

Hope everyone is ready on our side.

[Hortensis]

6. HRC is up to 10 points ahead nationally in a 2-person race,

which this will come down to. Gary Johnson is starting to insist it won't matter if he's in the debates, but of course it is critical to his continued visibility and he's nowhere near 15%.

We're doing fine at her end of the ticket. It's the Senate and everything else we need to work hard on.

[Bucky]

7. (in some polls, not in others... also, it's not a two-person race)

I hope you understand how the top of the ticket and the down-ballot are linked.

[Hortensis]

8. Bucky, just adding third-party candidates to polls pads their

names with an extra couple percentage points that they will not get in the GE. It has to do with reminding people being polled that they exist, but the same thing does not happen on election day.

As for how the top and down-ballot are linked in this election, that's what we're going to find out in November.

But, of course, the correlation between getting out the Democratic vote and victory at the polls is as strong as anything can be. If we want the Senate and a far better deal in the House and state legislatures we have to GOTV.